CD Marathon
vs
Atlético Choloma
Garuda Lions Prediction: CD Marathon
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.78.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — CD Marathon is the favourite, not a value bet.
CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma overview
Garuda Lions analysis: CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma
| Probability | CD Marathon | Draw | Atlético Choloma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.5% | 28.4% | 18.1% |
| Market | 66.7% | 19.9% | 13.4% |
| Final | 63.4% | 22.0% | 14.6% |
| Edge | -3.3% | +2.1% | +1.2% |
Why CD Marathon
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.78.
Best available price on the pick: 1.39, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.9% per unit staked (our 63.4% × 1.39 − 1).
CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma match preview
CD Marathon and Atlético Choloma are set to clash in the Honduras Liga Nacional, with CD Marathon holding a 52% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0, occurring with a 13% likelihood. CD Marathon's expected goals stand at 1.52, while Atlético Choloma is at 0.86, indicating a potential edge for the home side.
In terms of recent form, CD Marathon has recorded a mixed bag of results with one win in their last five matches, while Atlético Choloma has also struggled, winning two out of their last five. Head-to-head encounters favor CD Marathon, who have won three of the last five meetings, alongside one draw and one victory for Atlético Choloma. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
CD Marathon and Atlético Choloma expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.29
CD Marathon and Atlético Choloma attack and defence ratings
CD Marathon
Atlético Choloma
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CD Marathon | 63.4% | 1.58 | -3.3% | 1.39 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.4% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.5% | 2.15 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CD Marathon | 63.4% |
| Draw | 22.0% | |
| Atlético Choloma | 14.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.4% |
| No | 56.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | CD Marathon win | 28.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.0% | |
| Loss | 46.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.1% |
| 1-1 | 13.1% | |
| 2-0 | 11.5% |
CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma stats
CD Marathon and Atlético Choloma recent form
| CD Marathon |
WLDWDL |
| Atlético Choloma |
DLWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
CD Marathon and Atlético Choloma season so far
CD Marathon record
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlético Choloma record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Atlético Choloma | CD Marathon | Honduras Liga Nacional | 0-1 |
| 2026-05-01 | CD Marathon | Atlético Choloma | Honduras Liga Nacional | 0-1 |
| 2026-03-11 | Atlético Choloma | CD Marathon | Honduras Liga Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-27 | Atlético Choloma | CD Marathon | Honduras Liga Nacional | 0-4 |
| 2025-09-14 | CD Marathon | Atlético Choloma | Honduras Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 66.7%, draw 19.9%, away 13.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.34 | 4.50 | 7.01 |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.37 | 4.50 | 6.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.39 | 4.70 | 6.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.33 | 4.50 | 6.65 |