Juticalpa
vs
Estrella Roja
Garuda Lions Prediction: Estrella Roja
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.64 vs 1.32.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Juticalpa vs Estrella Roja overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Juticalpa vs Estrella Roja
| Probability | Juticalpa | Draw | Estrella Roja |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.6% | 18.5% | 64.9% |
| Market | 24.1% | 25.1% | 50.8% |
| Final | 22.2% | 23.5% | 54.3% |
| Edge | -1.9% | -1.7% | +3.5% |
Why Estrella Roja
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.64 vs 1.32.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Estrella Roja below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.5% per unit staked (our 54.3% × 1.85 − 1).
Juticalpa vs Estrella Roja match preview
Juticalpa faces Estrella Roja in the upcoming match, with Juticalpa holding a 22% probability of winning compared to Estrella Roja's 54%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with a 9% likelihood. The expected goals for Juticalpa stand at 1.32, while Estrella Roja is projected to score 2.64.
In terms of recent form, Juticalpa has struggled, recording five consecutive losses followed by one win. Estrella Roja's recent results show a mix of performances, with two wins, one draw, and three losses in their last six matches. Additionally, there is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% probability that both teams will score in this encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Juticalpa and Estrella Roja expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.96
Juticalpa and Estrella Roja attack and defence ratings
Juticalpa
Estrella Roja
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Juticalpa vs Estrella Roja markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estrella Roja | 54.3% | 1.84 | +3.5% | 1.85 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 77.8% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Estrella Roja win | 44.9% | 2.23 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juticalpa | 22.2% |
| Draw | 23.5% | |
| Estrella Roja | 54.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.8% |
| No | 31.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 45.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Estrella Roja win | 44.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 35.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.8% |
| 1-3 | 7.7% | |
| 1-1 | 7.3% |
Juticalpa vs Estrella Roja stats
Juticalpa and Estrella Roja recent form
| Juticalpa |
LLLLLW |
| Estrella Roja |
LWDWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Juticalpa and Estrella Roja season so far
Juticalpa record
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
Estrella Roja record
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
Juticalpa vs Estrella Roja head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Estrella Roja | Juticalpa | Honduras Liga Nacional | 5-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Juticalpa vs Estrella Roja odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 24.1%, draw 25.1%, away 50.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.78 | 3.46 | 1.80 |
| Bet365 | 3.75 | 3.60 | 1.75 |
| BetVictor | 3.80 | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| Betano | 3.75 | 3.55 | 1.78 |
| Betfair | 3.90 | 3.75 | 1.73 |
| Dafabet | 3.75 | 3.65 | 1.85 |
| Marathonbet | 3.68 | 3.46 | 1.78 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .