Lobos Upnfm
vs
CD Motagua
Garuda Lions Prediction: CD Motagua
0 – 1 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — CD Motagua is the favourite, not a value bet.
Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua
| Probability | Lobos Upnfm | Draw | CD Motagua |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.7% | 33.3% | 41.0% |
| Market | 25.2% | 25.9% | 49.0% |
| Final | 25.3% | 27.7% | 47.0% |
| Edge | +0.1% | +1.9% | -2.0% |
Why CD Motagua
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.92, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.8% per unit staked (our 47.0% × 1.92 − 1).
Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua match preview
Lobos Upnfm faces CD Motagua in an upcoming match with a predicted win probability of 27% for Lobos Upnfm, 32% for a draw, and 41% for CD Motagua. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 13% probability. The expected goals for Lobos Upnfm is 0.91, while CD Motagua has a higher expectation at 1.20.
In terms of recent form, Lobos Upnfm has recorded three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. Conversely, CD Motagua has achieved three wins, one loss, and one draw in the same timeframe. The head-to-head record shows Lobos Upnfm with one win, two draws, and CD Motagua with two wins in their last five encounters. The model indicates a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance for both teams to score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lobos Upnfm and CD Motagua expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.97
Lobos Upnfm and CD Motagua attack and defence ratings
Lobos Upnfm
CD Motagua
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CD Motagua | 47.0% | 2.13 | -2.0% | 1.92 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lobos Upnfm | 25.3% |
| Draw | 27.7% | |
| CD Motagua | 47.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.7% |
| No | 60.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | CD Motagua win | 17.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 59.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.3% |
| 1-1 | 14.6% | |
| 0-1 | 14.5% |
Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua stats
Lobos Upnfm and CD Motagua recent form
| Lobos Upnfm |
DWLWDW |
| CD Motagua |
WWWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lobos Upnfm and CD Motagua season so far
Lobos Upnfm record
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CD Motagua record
- They have won 9 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- 68% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | CD Motagua | Lobos Upnfm | Honduras Liga Nacional | 4-1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Lobos Upnfm | CD Motagua | Honduras Liga Nacional | 2-1 |
| 2026-03-11 | CD Motagua | Lobos Upnfm | Honduras Liga Nacional | 2-0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Lobos Upnfm | CD Motagua | Honduras Liga Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-14 | CD Motagua | Lobos Upnfm | Honduras Liga Nacional | 3-3 |
| 2025-04-08 | Lobos Upnfm | CD Motagua | Liga Nacional | 2-1 |
| 2025-02-07 | CD Motagua | Lobos Upnfm | Liga Nacional | 5-0 |
| 2024-09-28 | Lobos Upnfm | CD Motagua | Liga Nacional | 0-2 |
| 2024-07-27 | CD Motagua | Lobos Upnfm | Liga Nacional | 4-2 |
| 2024-04-14 | CD Motagua | Lobos Upnfm | Liga Nacional | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lobos Upnfm vs CD Motagua odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.2%, draw 25.9%, away 49.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.64 | 3.44 | 1.84 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 1.85 |
| BetVictor | 3.70 | 3.50 | 1.85 |
| Betano | 3.45 | 3.40 | 1.90 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 3.60 | 1.85 |
| Dafabet | 3.55 | 3.60 | 1.92 |
| Marathonbet | 3.54 | 3.44 | 1.82 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .