Estrella Roja
vs
CD Motagua
Garuda Lions Prediction: CD Motagua
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.01.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Estrella Roja vs CD Motagua overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Estrella Roja vs CD Motagua
| Probability | Estrella Roja | Draw | CD Motagua |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.1% | 26.1% | 52.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 21.1% | 26.1% | 52.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why CD Motagua
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Estrella Roja vs CD Motagua match preview
Estrella Roja faces CD Motagua in the Honduras Liga Nacional with a kickoff scheduled for November 4, 2026. According to our model, Estrella Roja has a 21% chance of winning, while CD Motagua is favored at 53%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a probability of 10%. The expected goals for Estrella Roja stand at 1.01, compared to CD Motagua's 1.72, indicating a potential advantage for the visitors.
In terms of recent performance, Estrella Roja has recorded a series of mixed results with a D-W-L-L-D-L streak, while CD Motagua has been more consistent, winning three of their last five matches. The probabilities suggest a 51% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 53% likelihood that both teams will score, highlighting an intriguing matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Estrella Roja and CD Motagua expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.73
Estrella Roja and CD Motagua attack and defence ratings
Estrella Roja
CD Motagua
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Estrella Roja vs CD Motagua markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CD Motagua | 52.8% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.9% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.2% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estrella Roja | 21.1% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| CD Motagua | 52.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.3% |
| No | 46.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 47.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | CD Motagua win | 29.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 47.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 0-1 | 10.1% | |
| 1-2 | 9.7% |
Estrella Roja vs CD Motagua stats
Estrella Roja and CD Motagua recent form
| Estrella Roja |
DWLLDL |
| CD Motagua |
WWWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Estrella Roja and CD Motagua season so far
Estrella Roja record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
CD Motagua record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 65% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Estrella Roja vs CD Motagua head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | CD Motagua | Estrella Roja | Honduras Liga Nacional | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.