CD Motagua
vs
CD Marathon
Garuda Lions Prediction: CD Motagua
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.15 vs 0.82.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
CD Motagua vs CD Marathon overview
Garuda Lions analysis: CD Motagua vs CD Marathon
| Probability | CD Motagua | Draw | CD Marathon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.9% | 33.2% | 25.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 41.9% | 33.2% | 25.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why CD Motagua
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.15 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
CD Motagua vs CD Marathon match preview
CD Motagua hosts CD Marathon in an upcoming Liga Nacional match, with the model giving CD Motagua a 42% chance of winning, while CD Marathon has a 25% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of CD Motagua, with an expected goals tally of 1.15 for them and 0.82 for CD Marathon. Both teams have shown varying recent form, with CD Motagua recording three wins and a draw in their last five matches, while CD Marathon has two wins and three draws.
In their last six encounters, CD Motagua has not secured a victory, with four matches ending in draws and CD Marathon winning twice. The model also indicates a 32% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance for both teams to score, reflecting a competitive matchup as both teams vie for crucial points.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
CD Motagua and CD Marathon expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.97
CD Motagua and CD Marathon attack and defence ratings
CD Motagua
CD Marathon
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
CD Motagua vs CD Marathon markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CD Motagua | 41.9% | 2.39 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.4% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CD Motagua | 41.9% |
| Draw | 33.2% | |
| CD Marathon | 25.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.6% |
| No | 60.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | CD Motagua win | 18.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 58.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.2% |
| 1-0 | 14.7% | |
| 1-1 | 14.5% |
CD Motagua vs CD Marathon stats
CD Motagua and CD Marathon recent form
| CD Motagua |
WWWLWD |
| CD Marathon |
DWDLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
CD Motagua and CD Marathon season so far
CD Motagua record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 65% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CD Marathon record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CD Motagua vs CD Marathon head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | CD Motagua | CD Marathon | Honduras Liga Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2026-05-22 | CD Marathon | CD Motagua | Honduras Liga Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-10 | CD Marathon | CD Motagua | Honduras Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2026-02-15 | CD Motagua | CD Marathon | Honduras Liga Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-25 | CD Marathon | CD Motagua | Honduras Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-18 | CD Motagua | CD Marathon | Honduras Liga Nacional | 3-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.