Lobos Upnfm
vs
Génesis
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lobos Upnfm
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Lobos Upnfm vs Génesis overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lobos Upnfm vs Génesis
| Probability | Lobos Upnfm | Draw | Génesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.2% | 33.3% | 25.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 41.2% | 33.3% | 25.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Lobos Upnfm
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Lobos Upnfm vs Génesis match preview
Lobos Upnfm faces Génesis in a match where the probabilities indicate a 44% chance of a Lobos victory, compared to 24% for Génesis and a 32% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.24 for Lobos Upnfm and 0.84 for Génesis. Recent form shows Lobos Upnfm with a mixed record of W-D-W-W-L-L, while Génesis has struggled, recording L-L-L-D-L-W.
In their last four encounters, Lobos Upnfm has secured three wins against Génesis, which has only one victory in this matchup. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 34%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 42%. With a confidence grade of C, the match is expected to be competitive but leans in favor of Lobos Upnfm based on recent performances and historical results.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lobos Upnfm and Génesis expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.97
Lobos Upnfm and Génesis attack and defence ratings
Lobos Upnfm
Génesis
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lobos Upnfm vs Génesis markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lobos Upnfm | 41.2% | 2.43 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.5% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lobos Upnfm | 41.2% |
| Draw | 33.3% | |
| Génesis | 25.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.7% |
| No | 60.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lobos Upnfm win | 17.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 58.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.3% |
| 1-1 | 14.5% | |
| 1-0 | 14.5% |
Lobos Upnfm vs Génesis stats
Lobos Upnfm and Génesis recent form
| Lobos Upnfm |
LWDWWL |
| Génesis |
LLLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lobos Upnfm and Génesis season so far
Lobos Upnfm record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Génesis record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lobos Upnfm vs Génesis head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Lobos Upnfm | Génesis | Honduras Liga Nacional | 0-1 |
| 2026-03-02 | Génesis | Lobos Upnfm | Honduras Liga Nacional | 0-2 |
| 2025-09-27 | Génesis | Lobos Upnfm | Honduras Liga Nacional | 2-3 |
| 2025-07-23 | Lobos Upnfm | Génesis | Honduras Liga Nacional | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.