Génesis
vs
Real Espana
Garuda Lions Prediction: Real Espana
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 1.01.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Génesis vs Real Espana overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Génesis vs Real Espana
| Probability | Génesis | Draw | Real Espana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.3% | 29.7% | 44.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 26.3% | 29.7% | 44.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Real Espana
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Génesis vs Real Espana match preview
Génesis faces Real Espana in an upcoming Liga Nacional match, with the model predicting a 26% chance of a Génesis win, a 30% chance of a draw, and a 44% chance for Real Espana to secure victory. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, estimated at 11%. Expected goals are 1.01 for Génesis and 1.38 for Real Espana, indicating a tighter contest.
Recent form shows Génesis struggling with three losses in their last five matches, while Real Espana has performed better, winning four of their last five. In their last five encounters, Génesis has yet to secure a win against Real Espana, recording one draw and four losses. The model suggests a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Génesis and Real Espana expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.39
Génesis and Real Espana attack and defence ratings
Génesis
Real Espana
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Génesis vs Real Espana markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Espana | 44.1% | 2.27 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Génesis | 26.3% |
| Draw | 29.7% | |
| Real Espana | 44.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.9% |
| No | 51.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Espana win | 21.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 55.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 0-1 | 11.3% | |
| 0-0 | 10.4% |
Génesis vs Real Espana stats
Génesis and Real Espana recent form
| Génesis |
LLLDLW |
| Real Espana |
WLWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Génesis and Real Espana season so far
Génesis record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Espana record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Génesis vs Real Espana head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Real Espana | Génesis | Honduras Liga Nacional | 2-0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Real Espana | Génesis | Honduras Liga Nacional | 2-1 |
| 2026-01-28 | Génesis | Real Espana | Honduras Liga Nacional | 1-2 |
| 2025-11-27 | Real Espana | Génesis | Honduras Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-15 | Génesis | Real Espana | Honduras Liga Nacional | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.