Atlético Choloma
vs
Atletico Independiente
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atlético Choloma
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 0.89.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente
| Probability | Atlético Choloma | Draw | Atletico Independiente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.5% | 24.7% | 16.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 58.5% | 24.7% | 16.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Atlético Choloma
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente match preview
Atlético Choloma enters this match with a probability of 58% to win, while Atletico Independiente has a 17% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0 in favor of Atlético Choloma, which has an 11% likelihood. Atlético Choloma has shown mixed recent form with two wins, one loss, one draw, and a prior win, while Atletico Independiente has struggled, recording two draws, two losses, one win, and another draw in their last five matches.
In terms of expected goals, Atlético Choloma is projected to score 1.83, compared to Atletico Independiente's 0.89. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams have a 50% likelihood of scoring. The recent head-to-head record shows that Atlético Choloma has not won against Atletico Independiente, who has one victory in their last encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atlético Choloma and Atletico Independiente expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
Atlético Choloma and Atletico Independiente attack and defence ratings
Atlético Choloma
Atletico Independiente
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlético Choloma | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.2% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.5% | 2.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlético Choloma | 58.5% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Atletico Independiente | 16.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.5% |
| No | 49.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atlético Choloma win | 34.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 41.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 2-0 | 11.1% | |
| 1-0 | 11.0% |
Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente stats
Atlético Choloma and Atletico Independiente recent form
| Atlético Choloma |
WWLWLD |
| Atletico Independiente |
DLDLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atlético Choloma and Atletico Independiente season so far
Atlético Choloma record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
Atletico Independiente record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Atletico Independiente | Atlético Choloma | Honduras Liga Nacional | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.