Estrella Roja
vs
Atletico Independiente
Garuda Lions Prediction: Estrella Roja
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.13.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Estrella Roja vs Atletico Independiente overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Estrella Roja vs Atletico Independiente
| Probability | Estrella Roja | Draw | Atletico Independiente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.1% | 23.2% | 19.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 57.1% | 23.2% | 19.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Estrella Roja
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.13.
Estrella Roja vs Atletico Independiente match preview
Estrella Roja enters this match with a 57% probability of winning, while Atletico Independiente has a 20% chance of securing a victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Estrella Roja, with an expected goals tally of 2.03 for Estrella Roja and 1.13 for Atletico Independiente. Additionally, there is a 61% likelihood of the match featuring over 2.5 goals, and both teams are expected to score with a probability of 60%.
Recent form shows Estrella Roja with a record of D-W-L-L-D-L, while Atletico Independiente has struggled, posting L-D-L-W-D-L in their last six matches. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the forecasted outcomes.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Estrella Roja and Atletico Independiente expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.16
Estrella Roja and Atletico Independiente attack and defence ratings
Estrella Roja
Atletico Independiente
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Estrella Roja vs Atletico Independiente markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estrella Roja | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.9% | 2.33 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estrella Roja | 57.1% |
| Draw | 23.2% | |
| Atletico Independiente | 19.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.9% |
| No | 40.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Estrella Roja win | 35.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 42.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 8.7% |
Estrella Roja vs Atletico Independiente stats
Estrella Roja and Atletico Independiente recent form
| Estrella Roja |
DWLLDL |
| Atletico Independiente |
LDLWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Estrella Roja and Atletico Independiente season so far
Estrella Roja record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
Atletico Independiente record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.