Olancho
vs
Estrella Roja
Garuda Lions Prediction: Olancho
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Olancho vs Estrella Roja overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Olancho vs Estrella Roja
| Probability | Olancho | Draw | Estrella Roja |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.3% | 30.1% | 25.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 44.3% | 30.1% | 25.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Olancho
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.35 vs 0.97.
Olancho vs Estrella Roja match preview
Olancho faces Estrella Roja in an upcoming match in the Honduras Liga Nacional. According to our model, Olancho has a 44% probability of winning, while Estrella Roja stands at 26%, with a 30% chance of a draw. The expected goals suggest Olancho will score 1.35, compared to Estrella Roja's 0.97. The most likely scoreline is a narrow 1-0 victory for Olancho, occurring with a 12% probability.
Recent form indicates Olancho has struggled, recording four draws and two losses in their last six matches. Estrella Roja has also had a challenging run, with two losses, two draws, and one win in their last five games. In their last head-to-head encounter, Olancho secured a victory, adding to their confidence ahead of this clash.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Olancho and Estrella Roja expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.32
Olancho and Estrella Roja attack and defence ratings
Olancho
Estrella Roja
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Olancho vs Estrella Roja markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Olancho | 44.3% | 2.26 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Olancho | 44.3% |
| Draw | 30.1% | |
| Estrella Roja | 25.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.4% |
| No | 52.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Olancho win | 21.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 55.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 1-0 | 12.0% | |
| 0-0 | 11.1% |
Olancho vs Estrella Roja stats
Olancho and Estrella Roja recent form
| Olancho |
LDDDDL |
| Estrella Roja |
LLDLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Olancho and Estrella Roja season so far
Olancho record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Estrella Roja record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Olancho vs Estrella Roja head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Estrella Roja | Olancho | Honduras Liga Nacional | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.