Atletico Independiente
vs
CD Marathon
Garuda Lions Prediction: CD Marathon
0 – 1 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 0.68.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — CD Marathon is the favourite, not a value bet.
Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon
| Probability | Atletico Independiente | Draw | CD Marathon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.9% | 27.3% | 57.7% |
| Market | 20.4% | 25.3% | 54.3% |
| Final | 19.0% | 25.8% | 55.1% |
| Edge | -1.4% | +0.5% | +0.9% |
Why CD Marathon
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 0.68.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.79, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.3% per unit staked (our 55.1% × 1.79 − 1).
Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon match preview
Atletico Independiente faces CD Marathon in the Honduras Liga Nacional with a challenging matchup ahead. The model indicates a 15% probability for Atletico Independiente to win, while CD Marathon has a stronger likelihood at 58%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 in favor of CD Marathon, with expected goals of 0.68 for Atletico Independiente and 1.58 for CD Marathon.
Recent form shows Atletico Independiente with a record of L-D-L-W-D-L, while CD Marathon has been performing well with W-D-L-W-W-W. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 39%, and both teams to score is at 40%. In their last encounter, CD Marathon secured a win, further enhancing their confidence heading into this match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico Independiente and CD Marathon expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.26
Atletico Independiente and CD Marathon attack and defence ratings
Atletico Independiente
CD Marathon
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CD Marathon | 55.1% | 1.81 | +0.9% | 1.79 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 81.0% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.3% | 2.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Independiente | 19.0% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| CD Marathon | 55.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.4% |
| No | 59.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 81.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | CD Marathon win | 31.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.9% | |
| Loss | 42.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 15.3% |
| 0-2 | 13.0% | |
| 1-1 | 12.4% |
Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon stats
Atletico Independiente and CD Marathon recent form
| Atletico Independiente |
LDLWDL |
| CD Marathon |
WDLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico Independiente and CD Marathon season so far
Atletico Independiente record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CD Marathon record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | CD Marathon | Atletico Independiente | Honduras Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 20.4%, draw 25.3%, away 54.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.36 | 3.54 | 1.68 |
| Bet365 | 4.50 | 3.60 | 1.62 |
| BetVictor | 4.60 | 3.60 | 1.67 |
| Betfair | 4.75 | 3.70 | 1.62 |
| Dafabet | 4.20 | 3.50 | 1.79 |
| Marathonbet | 4.25 | 3.54 | 1.66 |