Atletico Independiente
vs
Lobos Upnfm
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lobos Upnfm
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Atletico Independiente vs Lobos Upnfm overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Independiente vs Lobos Upnfm
| Probability | Atletico Independiente | Draw | Lobos Upnfm |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.2% | 33.7% | 28.1% |
| Market | 31.9% | 29.7% | 38.4% |
| Final | 33.5% | 30.7% | 35.8% |
| Edge | +6.3% | +4.0% | -10.3% |
Why Lobos Upnfm
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Atletico Independiente vs Lobos Upnfm match preview
Atletico Independiente faces Lobos Upnfm in the Honduras Liga Nacional with a 37% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 33% and Lobos Upnfm at 29%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 13% chance of occurring. Expected goals are calculated at 1.07 for Atletico Independiente and 0.92 for Lobos Upnfm, indicating a slight edge for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Atletico Independiente has recorded a sequence of L-W-D-L-D-D, while Lobos Upnfm's latest results show D-W-W-L-L-L. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is 32%, and both teams to score stands at 41%. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico Independiente and Lobos Upnfm expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.96
Atletico Independiente and Lobos Upnfm attack and defence ratings
Atletico Independiente
Lobos Upnfm
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico Independiente vs Lobos Upnfm markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lobos Upnfm | 35.8% | 2.79 | -10.3% | 2.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.7% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.3% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Independiente | 33.5% |
| Draw | 30.7% | |
| Lobos Upnfm | 35.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.0% |
| No | 60.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lobos Upnfm win | 10.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.1% | |
| Loss | 71.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.4% |
| 1-1 | 14.7% | |
| 1-0 | 13.8% |
Atletico Independiente vs Lobos Upnfm stats
Atletico Independiente and Lobos Upnfm recent form
| Atletico Independiente |
DLWDLD |
| Lobos Upnfm |
DWWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico Independiente and Lobos Upnfm season so far
Atletico Independiente record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lobos Upnfm record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Independiente vs Lobos Upnfm head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Atletico Independiente vs Lobos Upnfm odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.5%, draw 28.2%, away 38.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.94 | 2.88 | 2.38 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.20 | 2.35 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.25 | 2.30 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.47 | 3.35 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.86 | 2.88 | 2.36 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .