Olancho
vs
Atletico Independiente
Garuda Lions Prediction: Olancho
1 – 0 Predicted score · 17% model probability
Olancho vs Atletico Independiente overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Olancho vs Atletico Independiente
| Probability | Olancho | Draw | Atletico Independiente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.1% | 35.5% | 22.4% |
| Market | 60.9% | 21.5% | 17.6% |
| Final | 56.2% | 25.0% | 18.8% |
| Edge | -18.8% | +14.0% | +4.8% |
Why Olancho
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.04 vs 0.68.
Best available price on the pick: 1.57, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Olancho vs Atletico Independiente match preview
Olancho faces Atletico Independiente in the Honduras Liga Nacional with kickoff set for October 11, 2026. The model indicates a 42% probability of an Olancho victory, while a draw stands at 35% and Atletico Independiente at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Olancho, with a 17% probability. Expected goals suggest Olancho is projected to score 1.04, compared to Atletico Independiente's 0.68.
In terms of recent form, Olancho has recorded three draws, one loss, and one win in their last five matches, while Atletico Independiente has one win, two draws, and two losses in the same period. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 25%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 33%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating moderate certainty in the model's predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Olancho and Atletico Independiente expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.72
Olancho and Atletico Independiente attack and defence ratings
Olancho
Atletico Independiente
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Olancho vs Atletico Independiente markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Olancho | 56.2% | 1.78 | -18.8% | 1.57 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 66.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.2% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Olancho | 56.2% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| Atletico Independiente | 18.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 24.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 75.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33.3% |
| No | 66.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Olancho win | 17.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.7% | |
| Loss | 57.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 19.1% |
| 1-0 | 17.3% | |
| 1-1 | 14.0% |
Olancho vs Atletico Independiente stats
Olancho and Atletico Independiente recent form
| Olancho |
DDDLDW |
| Atletico Independiente |
LWDLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Olancho and Atletico Independiente season so far
Olancho record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Independiente record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Olancho vs Atletico Independiente head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Olancho vs Atletico Independiente odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 60.9%, draw 21.5%, away 17.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.48 | 4.15 | 5.22 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.44 | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| Betfair | 1.53 | 4.20 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.40 | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.47 | 4.15 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .