Garuda Lions
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Honduras Liga Nacional · Full time ·Apertura - 9

Lobos Upnfm vs CD Marathon

0 – 0 Full time

46′M. JuanD. Carter
63′J. GlavocicL. Hurtado
66′I. CastilloJ. Bueso
72′C. ArguetaC. Perez
72′N. MessinitiA. Elis
77′J. Ponce
84′S. ElvirM. Rodriguez
85′Y. HinestrozaA. Erazo
88′J. PonceB. Lopez

Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse, Choluteca

Lobos Upnfm 26%
Draw 29%
CD Marathon 46%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Lobos Upnfm vs CD Marathon overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Lobos Upnfm vs CD Marathon

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLobos UpnfmDrawCD Marathon
Model20.5%30.8%48.7%
Market27.3%28.0%44.7%
Final25.6%28.7%45.7%
Edge-1.7%+0.7%+1.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why CD Marathon

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.77.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Lobos Upnfm ↓ / CD Marathon → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 13% 15% 11% 1 8% 14% 8% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 87%
2+ goals 64%
3+ goals 35%
No goals 13%

Lobos Upnfm and CD Marathon expected goals

Lobos Upnfm 0.77
CD Marathon 1.34

Total expected goals: 2.11

Lobos Upnfm and CD Marathon attack and defence ratings

Lobos Upnfm

Attack 0.74 -26%
Defence 1.00 +0%

CD Marathon

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 0.68 -32%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Lobos Upnfm vs CD Marathon: result vs prediction

Lobos Upnfm 0 – 0 CD Marathon

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Apertura - 9 fixtures

Honduras Liga Nacional

Before and after this match

Lobos Upnfm vs CD Marathon markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 CD Marathon 45.7% 2.19 +1.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 64.8% 1.54 — —
Both teams to score No 59.1% 1.69 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 74.4% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.2% 1.95 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Lobos Upnfm25.6%
Draw28.7%
CD Marathon45.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.535.2%
Under 2.564.8%
Both teams to scoreYes40.9%
No59.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)54.3%
12 (either side)71.3%
X2 (draw or away)74.4%
Handicap -1CD Marathon win23.9%
Push (exactly one goal)24.9%
Loss51.2%
Correct score (top 3)0-115.0%
1-113.8%
0-013.4%

Lobos Upnfm vs CD Marathon stats

Lobos Upnfm and CD Marathon recent form

newest first
Lobos Upnfm WWLLLD
CD Marathon LWWWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Lobos Upnfm and CD Marathon going into this match

league record before kick-off

Lobos Upnfm record

  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

CD Marathon record

  • They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Lobos Upnfm vs CD Marathon head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Lobos Upnfm wins 4Draws 4CD Marathon wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-14CD MarathonLobos UpnfmHonduras Liga Nacional2-0
2026-01-25Lobos UpnfmCD MarathonHonduras Liga Nacional1-1
2025-12-04CD MarathonLobos UpnfmHonduras Liga Nacional2-0
2025-09-18Lobos UpnfmCD MarathonHonduras Liga Nacional2-2
2025-05-04Lobos UpnfmCD MarathonLiga Nacional0-0
2025-03-01CD MarathonLobos UpnfmLiga Nacional3-3
2024-10-26CD MarathonLobos UpnfmLiga Nacional1-2
2024-08-17Lobos UpnfmCD MarathonLiga Nacional2-0
2024-03-09Lobos UpnfmCD MarathonLiga Nacional0-1
2024-01-20CD MarathonLobos UpnfmLiga Nacional3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Lobos Upnfm vs CD Marathon odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 27.3%, draw 28.0%, away 44.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.34 3.20 2.01
Bet365 3.10 3.25 2.10
BetVictor 3.30 3.30 2.05
Betano 3.30 3.20 2.02
Betfair 3.25 3.30 2.00
Dafabet 3.35 3.30 2.10
Marathonbet 3.25 3.20 1.99
Pinnacle 3.34 3.15 1.97

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.30 ▲ +0.28
X 3.23 ▼ -0.02
2 2.01 ▼ -0.20

8 snapshots recorded, from .