Lobos Upnfm
vs
CD Marathon
Garuda Lions Prediction: CD Marathon
0 – 1 Predicted score · 15% model probability
Lobos Upnfm vs CD Marathon overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lobos Upnfm vs CD Marathon
| Probability | Lobos Upnfm | Draw | CD Marathon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.4% | 30.8% | 48.8% |
| Market | 29.5% | 28.4% | 42.1% |
| Final | 27.2% | 29.0% | 43.8% |
| Edge | -9.0% | +2.4% | +6.6% |
Why CD Marathon
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.33 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices CD Marathon below the model: +6.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.26, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Lobos Upnfm vs CD Marathon match preview
In the upcoming match between Lobos Upnfm and CD Marathon, the model indicates a competitive encounter with CD Marathon holding a 43% probability of victory compared to Lobos Upnfm's 28% and a 29% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 0-1, occurring with a 15% probability. The expected goals suggest Lobos Upnfm will struggle offensively with an expected tally of 0.77, while CD Marathon is forecasted to score around 1.33 goals.
Recent form shows Lobos Upnfm with two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while CD Marathon has fared better with four wins, one draw, and one loss. In their last four head-to-head meetings, Lobos Upnfm has not secured a win, recording two draws and two losses against CD Marathon. The confidence grade for this match is rated as C, reflecting a blend of model probabilities and market odds.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lobos Upnfm and CD Marathon expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.11
Lobos Upnfm and CD Marathon attack and defence ratings
Lobos Upnfm
CD Marathon
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lobos Upnfm vs CD Marathon markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CD Marathon | 43.8% | 2.28 | +6.6% | 2.26 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.7% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lobos Upnfm | 27.2% |
| Draw | 29.0% | |
| CD Marathon | 43.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.9% |
| No | 59.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | CD Marathon win | 23.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.9% | |
| Loss | 51.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 15.0% |
| 1-1 | 13.8% | |
| 0-0 | 13.4% |
Lobos Upnfm vs CD Marathon stats
Lobos Upnfm and CD Marathon recent form
| Lobos Upnfm |
WWLLLD |
| CD Marathon |
LWWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lobos Upnfm and CD Marathon season so far
Lobos Upnfm record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CD Marathon record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lobos Upnfm vs CD Marathon head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | CD Marathon | Lobos Upnfm | Honduras Liga Nacional | 2-0 |
| 2026-01-25 | Lobos Upnfm | CD Marathon | Honduras Liga Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-04 | CD Marathon | Lobos Upnfm | Honduras Liga Nacional | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-18 | Lobos Upnfm | CD Marathon | Honduras Liga Nacional | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lobos Upnfm vs CD Marathon odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.5%, draw 28.4%, away 42.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.07 | 3.14 | 2.15 |
| Bet365 | 3.20 | 3.25 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 2.92 | 3.10 | 2.25 |
| Betfair | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.05 | 3.20 | 2.26 |
| Marathonbet | 2.99 | 3.14 | 2.13 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .