Estrella Roja
vs
Real Espana
Garuda Lions Prediction: Real Espana
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Estrella Roja vs Real Espana overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Estrella Roja vs Real Espana
| Probability | Estrella Roja | Draw | Real Espana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.1% | 24.6% | 55.3% |
| Market | 21.8% | 26.0% | 52.2% |
| Final | 21.4% | 25.6% | 53.0% |
| Edge | -1.7% | -1.4% | +3.1% |
Why Real Espana
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Real Espana below the model: +3.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Estrella Roja vs Real Espana match preview
Estrella Roja faces Real Espana in the Liga Nacional, with kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. The model indicates a 20% chance of an Estrella Roja victory, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 55% probability that Real Espana will win. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring at a 10% probability. Both teams have a 56% chance of scoring, and the expected goals are 1.06 for Estrella Roja and 1.87 for Real Espana.
In terms of recent form, Estrella Roja has recorded a sequence of results including two losses, two draws, and one win in their last six matches. Conversely, Real Espana has shown stronger performance with three wins, two draws, and one loss in the same timeframe. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate reliability in the model's predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Estrella Roja and Real Espana expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.93
Estrella Roja and Real Espana attack and defence ratings
Estrella Roja
Real Espana
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Estrella Roja vs Real Espana markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Espana | 53.0% | 1.89 | +3.1% | 1.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.6% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.7% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estrella Roja | 21.4% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| Real Espana | 53.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.2% |
| No | 43.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 47.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Espana win | 32.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 44.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 9.4% |
Estrella Roja vs Real Espana stats
Estrella Roja and Real Espana recent form
| Estrella Roja |
LDLDWD |
| Real Espana |
WDWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Estrella Roja and Real Espana season so far
Estrella Roja record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
Real Espana record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Estrella Roja vs Real Espana head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Estrella Roja vs Real Espana odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 21.8%, draw 26.0%, away 52.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.04 | 3.48 | 1.74 |
| Bet365 | 4.10 | 3.50 | 1.73 |
| Betano | 4.25 | 3.30 | 1.75 |
| Betfair | 4.20 | 3.60 | 1.70 |
| Dafabet | 4.40 | 3.40 | 1.73 |
| Marathonbet | 3.94 | 3.48 | 1.72 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .