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Honduras Liga Nacional · ·Apertura - 9

CD Motagua vs Atlético Choloma

Garuda Lions Prediction: CD Motagua

1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability

Bet on CD Motagua

Estadio Nacional Chelato Ucles, Tegucigalpa

CD Motagua 61%
Draw 23%
Atlético Choloma 16%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance CD Motagua wins
61%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
86%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
40%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 0
15% of simulated outcomes

CD Motagua vs Atlético Choloma overview

Garuda Lions analysis: CD Motagua vs Atlético Choloma

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCD MotaguaDrawAtlético Choloma
Model46.2%32.0%21.8%
Market65.8%20.4%13.8%
Final60.9%23.3%15.8%
Edge-19.6%+11.6%+8.1%

Confidence: Low

Why CD Motagua

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.25 vs 0.78.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Best available price on the pick: 1.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.

CD Motagua vs Atlético Choloma match preview

CD Motagua enters this match against Atlético Choloma with a strong probability of winning at 66%, while Choloma's chances stand at 13%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of Motagua, with a 15% likelihood. The expected goals indicate Motagua at 1.25 and Choloma at 0.78, suggesting a defensive struggle for the visitors.

Recent form shows CD Motagua with a mixed record of L-W-D-W-W-L, while Atlético Choloma has struggled, recording W-L-D-L-W-L. In their last four encounters, CD Motagua has dominated with four wins and no draws or losses against Choloma. The overall confidence grade for this matchup is C, reflecting a blend of probabilities and market odds.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

CD Motagua ↓ / Atlético Cholo → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 14% 9% 1 15% 14% 2 10% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 86%
2+ goals 61%
3+ goals 33%
No goals 14%

CD Motagua and Atlético Choloma expected goals

CD Motagua 1.25
Atlético Choloma 0.78

Total expected goals: 2.03

CD Motagua and Atlético Choloma attack and defence ratings

CD Motagua

Attack 0.89 -11%
Defence 0.73 -27%

Atlético Choloma

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Apertura - 9 fixtures

Honduras Liga Nacional

Before and after this match

CD Motagua vs Atlético Choloma markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 CD Motagua 60.9% 1.64 -19.6% 1.40
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 67.0% 1.49 — —
Both teams to score No 60.2% 1.66 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 84.2% 1.19 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 53.8% 1.86 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2CD Motagua60.9%
Draw23.3%
Atlético Choloma15.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.533.0%
Under 2.567.0%
Both teams to scoreYes39.8%
No60.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)84.2%
12 (either side)76.7%
X2 (draw or away)39.1%
Handicap -1CD Motagua win21.6%
Push (exactly one goal)24.6%
Loss53.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-015.2%
0-014.5%
1-114.1%
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CD Motagua vs Atlético Choloma stats

CD Motagua and Atlético Choloma recent form

newest first
CD Motagua LWDWWL
Atlético Choloma WLDLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

CD Motagua and Atlético Choloma season so far

league record

CD Motagua record

  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
  • 64% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atlético Choloma record

  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

CD Motagua vs Atlético Choloma head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

8CD Motagua wins 2Draws 0Atlético Choloma wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-26CD MotaguaAtlético CholomaHonduras Liga Nacional5-1
2026-03-08Atlético CholomaCD MotaguaHonduras Liga Nacional1-3
2025-11-09CD MotaguaAtlético CholomaHonduras Liga Nacional2-1
2025-09-10Atlético CholomaCD MotaguaHonduras Liga Nacional0-3
2013-04-04Atlético CholomaCD MotaguaLiga Nacional0-3
2013-02-15CD MotaguaAtlético CholomaLiga Nacional1-0
2012-11-11CD MotaguaAtlético CholomaLiga Nacional0-0
2012-09-15Atlético CholomaCD MotaguaLiga Nacional1-2
2012-03-22Atlético CholomaCD MotaguaLiga Nacional0-0
2012-01-29CD MotaguaAtlético CholomaLiga Nacional1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

CD Motagua vs Atlético Choloma odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 65.8%, draw 20.4%, away 13.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.35 4.45 6.96
Bet365 1.38 4.50 6.00
Betano 1.40 4.30 6.10
Dafabet 1.39 4.70 6.80
Marathonbet 1.34 4.45 6.60
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Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.38 ▲ +0.09
X 4.45 ▼ -0.85
2 6.60 ▼ -2.38

8 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 CD Motagua Predicted score 1 – 0 Low Bet Now
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