Génesis
vs
Estrella Roja
Garuda Lions Prediction: Génesis
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Génesis vs Estrella Roja overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Génesis vs Estrella Roja
| Probability | Génesis | Draw | Estrella Roja |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.5% | 27.0% | 18.5% |
| Market | 49.6% | 27.4% | 23.0% |
| Final | 50.8% | 27.3% | 21.9% |
| Edge | +5.0% | -0.5% | -4.5% |
Why Génesis
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 0.86.
- The market prices Génesis below the model: +5.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Génesis vs Estrella Roja match preview
Génesis enters this match with a probability of 51% to win against Estrella Roja, who has a 22% chance of securing victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Génesis, with an expected goals figure of 1.63 compared to Estrella Roja's 0.86. Recent form shows Génesis with a record of L-D-L-W-L-D, while Estrella Roja has struggled, recording L-L-D-L-D-W.
The likelihood of a draw stands at 27%, indicating a competitive matchup. Our model suggests a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored and a 48% probability that both teams will find the net. With a confidence grade of C, this fixture presents an intriguing challenge for both sides as they seek to improve their standings.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Génesis and Estrella Roja expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.49
Génesis and Estrella Roja attack and defence ratings
Génesis
Estrella Roja
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Génesis vs Estrella Roja markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Génesis | 50.8% | 1.97 | +5.0% | 1.85 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.5% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.5% | 2.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Génesis | 50.8% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Estrella Roja | 21.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.6% |
| No | 52.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Génesis win | 30.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 45.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 1-0 | 12.3% | |
| 2-0 | 11.0% |
Génesis vs Estrella Roja stats
Génesis and Estrella Roja recent form
| Génesis |
LDLWLD |
| Estrella Roja |
LLDLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Génesis and Estrella Roja season so far
Génesis record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Estrella Roja record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Génesis vs Estrella Roja head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Génesis vs Estrella Roja odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.6%, draw 27.5%, away 23.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.81 | 3.28 | 3.97 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.30 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.83 | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.85 | 3.20 | 3.95 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.83 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.79 | 3.28 | 3.86 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .