CD Marathon
vs
Olancho
Garuda Lions Prediction: CD Marathon
1 – 0 Predicted score · 20% model probability
CD Marathon vs Olancho overview
Garuda Lions analysis: CD Marathon vs Olancho
| Probability | CD Marathon | Draw | Olancho |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.2% | 34.0% | 16.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 49.2% | 34.0% | 16.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why CD Marathon
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.15 vs 0.56.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
CD Marathon vs Olancho match preview
CD Marathon is set to face Olancho in the Honduras Liga Nacional, with kickoff scheduled for October 15, 2026. According to our model, CD Marathon has a 49% chance of winning, while a draw is estimated at 34% and Olancho at 17%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of CD Marathon, with an expected goals tally of 1.15 for Marathon and 0.56 for Olancho.
In terms of recent form, CD Marathon has recorded a mixed bag of results with two wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. Olancho, on the other hand, has struggled, managing only one win in their last six outings, accompanied by three draws and two losses. Historically, CD Marathon has had the upper hand in their last six encounters, winning three times, drawing twice, and losing once.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
CD Marathon and Olancho expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.71
CD Marathon and Olancho attack and defence ratings
CD Marathon
Olancho
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
CD Marathon vs Olancho markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CD Marathon | 49.2% | 2.03 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 69.5% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.2% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CD Marathon | 49.2% |
| Draw | 34.0% | |
| Olancho | 16.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 24.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 75.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 30.5% |
| No | 69.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | CD Marathon win | 22.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.1% | |
| Loss | 50.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 19.6% |
| 0-0 | 19.2% | |
| 1-1 | 12.8% |
CD Marathon vs Olancho stats
CD Marathon and Olancho recent form
| CD Marathon |
LWWWDW |
| Olancho |
DDDLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
CD Marathon and Olancho season so far
CD Marathon record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Olancho record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CD Marathon vs Olancho head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | CD Marathon | Olancho | Honduras Liga Nacional | 0-2 |
| 2026-02-21 | Olancho | CD Marathon | Honduras Liga Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-28 | CD Marathon | Olancho | Honduras Liga Nacional | 2-1 |
| 2025-12-12 | Olancho | CD Marathon | Honduras Liga Nacional | 0-3 |
| 2025-11-01 | CD Marathon | Olancho | Honduras Liga Nacional | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-24 | Olancho | CD Marathon | Honduras Liga Nacional | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.