Atlético Choloma
vs
Génesis
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atlético Choloma
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Atlético Choloma vs Génesis overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atlético Choloma vs Génesis
| Probability | Atlético Choloma | Draw | Génesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.1% | 32.8% | 31.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 36.1% | 32.8% | 31.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Atlético Choloma
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Atlético Choloma vs Génesis match preview
Atlético Choloma and Génesis are set to clash in the Honduras Liga Nacional, with Atlético Choloma holding a 36% probability of victory compared to Génesis's 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Atlético Choloma, occurring with a 12% likelihood. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Atlético Choloma recording a W-L-W-L-D-L streak, while Génesis has struggled with L-L-D-L-W-L.
In terms of expected goals, Atlético Choloma is projected to score 1.09, while Génesis is slightly behind at 0.99. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 35%, and there is a 43% chance that both teams will score. Historically, in their last five encounters, Atlético Choloma has secured 1 win, while Génesis has won 3 times, with 1 match ending in a draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atlético Choloma and Génesis expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.08
Atlético Choloma and Génesis attack and defence ratings
Atlético Choloma
Génesis
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atlético Choloma vs Génesis markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlético Choloma | 36.1% | 2.77 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.5% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.9% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.9% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlético Choloma | 36.1% |
| Draw | 32.8% | |
| Génesis | 31.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.1% |
| No | 56.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atlético Choloma win | 15.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 63.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.8% | |
| 1-0 | 12.2% |
Atlético Choloma vs Génesis stats
Atlético Choloma and Génesis recent form
| Atlético Choloma |
WLWLDL |
| Génesis |
LLDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atlético Choloma and Génesis season so far
Atlético Choloma record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Génesis record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlético Choloma vs Génesis head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Génesis | Atlético Choloma | Honduras Liga Nacional | 2-0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Atlético Choloma | Génesis | Honduras Liga Nacional | 1-2 |
| 2026-02-01 | Génesis | Atlético Choloma | Honduras Liga Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Génesis | Atlético Choloma | Honduras Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-24 | Atlético Choloma | Génesis | Honduras Liga Nacional | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.