CD Motagua
vs
Juticalpa
Garuda Lions Prediction: CD Motagua
2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 0.69.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
CD Motagua vs Juticalpa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: CD Motagua vs Juticalpa
| Probability | CD Motagua | Draw | Juticalpa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69.0% | 20.7% | 10.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 69.0% | 20.7% | 10.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why CD Motagua
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
CD Motagua vs Juticalpa match preview
CD Motagua enters the match against Juticalpa with a strong probability of winning at 69%, while Juticalpa has a 10% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring at a rate of 13%. CD Motagua's expected goals stand at 2.10, significantly higher than Juticalpa's 0.69, indicating a disparity in offensive performance.
In terms of recent form, CD Motagua has recorded three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches, while Juticalpa has struggled with two wins and three losses. The head-to-head record favors CD Motagua, who has won four of the last five encounters, with one match ending in a draw. The model suggests a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance for both teams to score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
CD Motagua and Juticalpa expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.79
CD Motagua and Juticalpa attack and defence ratings
CD Motagua
Juticalpa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
CD Motagua vs Juticalpa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CD Motagua | 69.0% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.7% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | CD Motagua win | 45.1% | 2.22 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CD Motagua | 69.0% |
| Draw | 20.7% | |
| Juticalpa | 10.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.8% |
| No | 55.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 31.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | CD Motagua win | 45.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 31.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.5% |
| 1-0 | 12.0% | |
| 1-1 | 9.8% |
CD Motagua vs Juticalpa stats
CD Motagua and Juticalpa recent form
| CD Motagua |
WWLWDW |
| Juticalpa |
LLWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
CD Motagua and Juticalpa season so far
CD Motagua record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 67% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Juticalpa record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
CD Motagua vs Juticalpa head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Juticalpa | CD Motagua | Honduras Liga Nacional | 0-3 |
| 2026-04-19 | CD Motagua | Juticalpa | Honduras Liga Nacional | 2-1 |
| 2026-02-25 | Juticalpa | CD Motagua | Honduras Liga Nacional | 1-2 |
| 2025-12-07 | Juticalpa | CD Motagua | Honduras Liga Nacional | 1-7 |
| 2025-09-21 | CD Motagua | Juticalpa | Honduras Liga Nacional | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.