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Honduras Liga Nacional · Full time ·Apertura - 8

CD Olimpia vs Atletico Independiente

4 – 0 Full time

9′C. CanalesK. Guity
15′C. Bennett
21′L. Melendez
21′J. FiallosE. Luna
24′S. Cruz
30′D. Flores
43′C. Bennett
44′D. Flores
46′L. MelendezC. Vasquez
46′A. CabreraE. Marmol
69′N. EnamoradoA. Bodden
70′A. Maldonado
71′D. FloresJ. Rodriguez
72′A. MaldonadoJ. Alvarez
72′F. GarciaE. Lobo
79′D. PaguadaJ. Bermudez
81′E. Luna
82′S. CruzG. Martinez

Estadio Nacional Jose de la Paz Herrera Ucles, Tegucigalpa

CD Olimpia 65%
Draw 22%
Atletico Independiente 13%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

CD Olimpia vs Atletico Independiente overview

Garuda Lions analysis: CD Olimpia vs Atletico Independiente

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCD OlimpiaDrawAtletico Independiente
Model53.6%26.4%19.9%
Market68.7%20.1%11.2%
Final64.9%21.7%13.4%
Edge-15.1%+6.3%+8.8%

Confidence: Low

Why CD Olimpia

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.95.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

CD Olimpia ↓ / Atletico Indep → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 11% 13% 2 10% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 49%
No goals 8%

CD Olimpia and Atletico Independiente expected goals

CD Olimpia 1.69
Atletico Independiente 0.95

Total expected goals: 2.63

CD Olimpia and Atletico Independiente attack and defence ratings

CD Olimpia

Attack 1.34 +34%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Atletico Independiente

Attack 0.85 -15%
Defence 0.83 -17%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

CD Olimpia vs Atletico Independiente: result vs prediction

CD Olimpia 4 – 0 Atletico Independiente

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Apertura - 8 fixtures

Honduras Liga Nacional

Before and after this match

CD Olimpia vs Atletico Independiente markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 CD Olimpia 64.9% 1.54 -15.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 51.0% 1.96 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.0% 1.96 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 86.6% 1.15 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.4% 2.16 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2CD Olimpia64.9%
Draw21.7%
Atletico Independiente13.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.0%
Under 2.551.0%
Both teams to scoreYes51.0%
No49.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)86.6%
12 (either side)78.3%
X2 (draw or away)35.1%
Handicap -1CD Olimpia win30.0%
Push (exactly one goal)23.6%
Loss46.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.6%
1-011.0%
2-010.2%

CD Olimpia vs Atletico Independiente stats

CD Olimpia and Atletico Independiente recent form

newest first
CD Olimpia LWDDWW
Atletico Independiente WDLDDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

CD Olimpia and Atletico Independiente going into this match

league record before kick-off

CD Olimpia record

  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico Independiente record

  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

CD Olimpia vs Atletico Independiente head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

CD Olimpia vs Atletico Independiente odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 68.7%, draw 20.1%, away 11.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.31 4.45 8.25
Bet365 1.33 4.33 7.50
BetVictor 1.30 4.80 8.50
Betano 1.37 4.35 6.60
Betfair 1.29 5.00 8.50
Marathonbet 1.30 4.45 7.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.31 —
X 4.45 —
2 8.03 —

2 snapshots recorded, from .