Garuda Lions
Today
Honduras Liga Nacional · Full time ·Apertura - 7

Atletico Independiente vs Juticalpa

2 – 1 Full time

15′M. Nunez
24′A. Cabrera
27′A. Cabrera
45′M. Nunez
56′J. Padilla
60′M. CanalesC. Rochez
60′M. NunezC. Sacaza
63′C. VasquezE. Luna
63′A. CabreraF. J. Escoto Pineda
64′D. LlorenteL. Melendez
70′J. PadillaK. Matute
70′J. RochezY. Delgadillo
70′S. EspinozaE. Marmol
71′F. J. Escoto Pineda
76′S. Cruz
83′J. VelasquezM. Reyes
83′S. CruzA. Bodden

Estadio Carlos Miranda, Comayagua

Atletico Independiente 56%
Draw 25%
Juticalpa 19%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Atletico Independiente vs Juticalpa overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Independiente vs Juticalpa

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtletico IndependienteDrawJuticalpa
Model60.4%25.8%13.8%
Market55.0%24.9%20.1%
Final56.4%25.1%18.5%
Edge+5.4%+0.9%-6.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Atletico Independiente

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.69.
  • The market prices Atletico Independiente below the model: +5.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atletico Indep ↓ / Juticalpa → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 1 15% 12% 2 13% 9% 3 8% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 70%
3+ goals 43%
No goals 10%

Atletico Independiente and Juticalpa expected goals

Atletico Independiente 1.70
Juticalpa 0.69

Total expected goals: 2.38

Atletico Independiente and Juticalpa attack and defence ratings

Atletico Independiente

Attack 0.76 -24%
Defence 0.83 -17%

Juticalpa

Attack 0.64 -36%
Defence 1.44 +44%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atletico Independiente vs Juticalpa: result vs prediction

Atletico Independiente 2 – 1 Juticalpa

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Apertura - 7 fixtures

Honduras Liga Nacional

Before and after this match

Atletico Independiente vs Juticalpa markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atletico Independiente 56.4% 1.77 +5.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 57.5% 1.74 — —
Both teams to score No 58.3% 1.72 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 81.5% 1.23 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 39.4% 2.54 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atletico Independiente56.4%
Draw25.1%
Juticalpa18.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542.5%
Under 2.557.5%
Both teams to scoreYes41.7%
No58.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)81.5%
12 (either side)74.9%
X2 (draw or away)43.6%
Handicap -1Atletico Independiente win35.0%
Push (exactly one goal)25.6%
Loss39.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-014.6%
2-013.2%
1-111.9%

Atletico Independiente vs Juticalpa stats

Atletico Independiente and Juticalpa recent form

newest first
Atletico Independiente DLDDWL
Juticalpa LWLLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atletico Independiente and Juticalpa going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atletico Independiente record

  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Juticalpa record

  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.

Atletico Independiente vs Juticalpa head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Atletico Independiente vs Juticalpa odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 55.0%, draw 24.9%, away 20.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.65 3.52 4.74
Bet365 1.67 3.75 4.10
BetVictor 1.67 3.70 4.50
Betano 1.70 3.65 4.05
Betfair 1.57 3.90 4.75
Marathonbet 1.64 3.52 4.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.66 ▲ +0.09
X 3.67 ▼ -0.28
2 4.55 ▼ -0.18

4 snapshots recorded, from .