Garuda Lions
Today
Honduras Liga Nacional · Full time ·Apertura - 7

Estrella Roja vs Platense FC

2 – 2 Full time

1′E. Urbina
33′M. Moncada
34′M. Arzu
46′M. MoncadaG. Welcome
46′M. ArzuA. Garcia
46′O. RosalesF. Lopez
46′S. BermudezE. Duarte
55′G. Welcome
58′C. CalixM. Garcia
66′N. LunaE. Munguia
66′J. VelasquezR. Benitez
75′C. GutierrezJ. Brooks
78′E. Solano
81′E. Garcia
83′E. Urbina
83′E. Duarte
84′Platense FC
86′E. Munguia
87′E. Munguia
90′Platense FC
90′A. PortilloJ. Funes
90′E. SolanoY. Arriola

Estadio Marcelo Tinoco, Danli

Estrella Roja 52%
Draw 25%
Platense FC 23%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Estrella Roja vs Platense FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Estrella Roja vs Platense FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityEstrella RojaDrawPlatense FC
Model62.4%20.5%17.1%
Market48.5%27.2%24.3%
Final52.0%25.5%22.5%
Edge+13.9%-6.7%-7.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Estrella Roja

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 1.18.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Estrella Roja below the model: +13.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Estrella Roja ↓ / Platense FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 9% 5% 2 8% 10% 6% 3 6% 7% 4+ 6% 8%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 68%
No goals 4%

Estrella Roja and Platense FC expected goals

Estrella Roja 2.34
Platense FC 1.18

Total expected goals: 3.53

Estrella Roja and Platense FC attack and defence ratings

Estrella Roja

Attack 1.16 +16%
Defence 1.31 +31%

Platense FC

Attack 0.69 -31%
Defence 1.31 +31%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Estrella Roja vs Platense FC: result vs prediction

Estrella Roja 2 – 2 Platense FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Apertura - 7 fixtures

Honduras Liga Nacional

Before and after this match

Estrella Roja vs Platense FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Estrella Roja 52.0% 1.92 +13.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 68.4% 1.46 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.5% 1.57 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 77.5% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Estrella Roja win 41.2% 2.43 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Estrella Roja52.0%
Draw25.5%
Platense FC22.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568.4%
Under 2.531.6%
Both teams to scoreYes63.5%
No36.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)77.5%
12 (either side)74.5%
X2 (draw or away)48.0%
Handicap -1Estrella Roja win41.2%
Push (exactly one goal)21.2%
Loss37.6%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.6%
1-19.0%
2-08.1%

Estrella Roja vs Platense FC stats

Estrella Roja and Platense FC recent form

newest first
Estrella Roja LDWDWL
Platense FC LWLLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Estrella Roja and Platense FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Estrella Roja record

  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.

Platense FC record

  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Estrella Roja vs Platense FC head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Estrella Roja vs Platense FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 48.5%, draw 27.2%, away 24.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.85 3.30 3.88
Bet365 1.85 3.30 3.50
BetVictor 1.90 3.40 3.60
Marathonbet 1.83 3.30 3.80
Pinnacle 1.83 3.18 3.67
William Hill 1.95 3.10 3.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.85 ▼ -0.25
X 3.30 —
2 3.69 ▲ +0.69

3 snapshots recorded, from .