Ferencvarosi TC
vs
MTK Budapest
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ferencvarosi TC
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest
| Probability | Ferencvarosi TC | Draw | MTK Budapest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.2% | 24.4% | 17.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 58.2% | 24.4% | 17.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Ferencvarosi TC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest match preview
Ferencvarosi TC is favored to win against MTK Budapest, with a 58% probability according to our model. The expected goals for Ferencvarosi TC stand at 1.86, while MTK Budapest is projected to score 0.93. Recent form shows Ferencvarosi TC with a record of W-D-D-W-D-W, indicating a solid performance, whereas MTK Budapest has struggled with W-L-L-L-D-W.
In their last three encounters, Ferencvarosi TC has secured two wins and one draw against MTK Budapest, who has yet to claim a victory in this matchup. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring with an 11% likelihood. Additionally, there is a 53% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance that both teams will score in this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ferencvarosi TC and MTK Budapest expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.80
Ferencvarosi TC and MTK Budapest attack and defence ratings
Ferencvarosi TC
MTK Budapest
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ferencvarosi TC | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.6% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.8% | 2.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ferencvarosi TC | 58.2% |
| Draw | 24.4% | |
| MTK Budapest | 17.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% |
| No | 47.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ferencvarosi TC win | 34.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 41.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 2-0 | 10.6% | |
| 1-0 | 10.3% |
Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest stats
Ferencvarosi TC and MTK Budapest recent form
| Ferencvarosi TC |
WDDWDW |
| MTK Budapest |
WLLLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ferencvarosi TC and MTK Budapest season so far
Ferencvarosi TC record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 62% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
MTK Budapest record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-23 | MTK Budapest | Ferencvarosi TC | NB I | 1-3 |
| 2025-11-01 | Ferencvarosi TC | MTK Budapest | NB I | 4-1 |
| 2025-07-26 | MTK Budapest | Ferencvarosi TC | NB I | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.