NB I
·
·Matchday 10
MTK Budapest
vs
Vasas
Garuda Lions Prediction: Vasas
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
MTK Budapest
33%
Draw
23%
Vasas
43%
Chance Vasas wins
43%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
96%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
71%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 2
8% of simulated outcomes
MTK Budapest vs Vasas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: MTK Budapest vs Vasas
| Probability | MTK Budapest | Draw | Vasas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.4% | 23.5% | 43.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 33.4% | 23.5% | 43.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Vasas
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
88%
3+ goals
70%
No goals
4%
MTK Budapest and Vasas expected goals
MTK Budapest
1.69
Vasas
1.93
Total expected goals: 3.61
MTK Budapest and Vasas attack and defence ratings
MTK Budapest
Attack
1.06 +6%
Defence
1.04 +4%
Vasas
Attack
1.29 +29%
Defence
0.99 -1%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
MTK Budapest vs Vasas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vasas | 43.1% | 2.32 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.0% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | MTK Budapest | 33.4% |
| Draw | 23.5% | |
| Vasas | 43.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.5% |
| No | 29.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vasas win | 24.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 56.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.6% |
| 1-2 | 8.4% | |
| 2-1 | 7.4% |
MTK Budapest vs Vasas stats
MTK Budapest and Vasas recent form
| MTK Budapest |
LLDWDL |
| Vasas |
WWLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
MTK Budapest and Vasas season so far
MTK Budapest record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vasas record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.