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NB I · Full time ·Matchday 10

MTK Budapest vs Vasas

1 – 0 Full time

26′Gyorgy Komaromi
45′Rajmund horvathMárk Kovácsréti
60′Botond Baráth
62′B. Rab
65′Gabor JurekKristof Hinora
67′Márk KosztaBence Janos Petho
67′B. RabSzabolcs Mezei
67′Milan TóthC. Molnár
76′Mark Kerezsi ZalanÁ Nyers
76′Patrik kovacs
83′Sandor HidiGergo Janos Palinkas
83′Á. ZuborBenedek Varju
84′Dániel Csóka
90′Bence Pávkovics

Hidegkúti Nándor Stadion, BudapestReferee: B. Hanyecz

MTK Budapest 37%
Draw 25%
Vasas 38%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 17
5 Shots on target 4
45 Possession % 55
3 Corners 5
9 Fouls 13
4 Saves 3
279 Accurate passes 473

MTK Budapest vs Vasas overview

Garuda Lions analysis: MTK Budapest vs Vasas

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMTK BudapestDrawVasas
Model29.2%23.7%47.1%
Market39.3%25.1%35.6%
Final36.8%24.8%38.5%
Edge-2.5%-0.3%+2.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Vasas

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.51.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Vasas below our published probability: +2.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

MTK Budapest ↓ / Vasas → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 6% 1 10% 9% 6% 2 7% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 67%
No goals 4%

MTK Budapest and Vasas expected goals

MTK Budapest 1.51
Vasas 1.95

Total expected goals: 3.47

MTK Budapest and Vasas attack and defence ratings

MTK Budapest

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 1.12 +12%

Vasas

Attack 1.22 +22%
Defence 0.96 -4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

MTK Budapest vs Vasas: result vs prediction

MTK Budapest 1 – 0 Vasas

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

NB I

Before and after this match

MTK Budapest vs Vasas markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Vasas 38.5% 2.60 +2.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 67.3% 1.49 — —
Both teams to score Yes 67.9% 1.47 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.2% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 52.9% 1.89 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2MTK Budapest36.8%
Draw24.8%
Vasas38.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567.3%
Under 2.532.7%
Both teams to scoreYes67.9%
No32.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)61.5%
12 (either side)75.2%
X2 (draw or away)63.2%
Handicap -1Vasas win27.2%
Push (exactly one goal)19.9%
Loss52.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.2%
1-29.0%
2-17.0%

MTK Budapest vs Vasas stats

MTK Budapest and Vasas recent form

newest first
MTK Budapest LLLDWD
Vasas DWWLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

MTK Budapest and Vasas going into this match

league record before kick-off

MTK Budapest record

  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Vasas record

  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

MTK Budapest vs Vasas head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

6MTK Budapest wins 0Draws 3Vasas wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-01MTK BudapestVasasFriendlies Clubs3-1
2020-03-14MTK BudapestVasasNB II3-1
2019-09-18VasasMTK BudapestNB II1-4
2017-03-11MTK BudapestVasasNB I1-0
2016-10-15VasasMTK BudapestNB I3-2
2016-07-17MTK BudapestVasasNB I0-1
2016-04-30MTK BudapestVasasNB I0-2
2015-12-05MTK BudapestVasasNB I2-1
2015-08-29VasasMTK BudapestNB I0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

MTK Budapest vs Vasas odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 39.4%, draw 25.1%, away 35.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.24 3.60 2.54
Bet365 2.30 3.50 2.50
Betano 2.30 3.70 2.75
Betfair 2.20 3.75 2.63
Dafabet 2.29 3.70 2.75
Marathonbet 2.24 3.60 2.54
Pinnacle 2.44 3.93 2.59
SBO 2.18 3.35 2.54
William Hill 2.30 3.60 2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.30 ▲ +0.01
X 3.60 ▼ -0.06
2 2.54 ▼ -0.04

11 snapshots recorded, from .