Paks
vs
MTK Budapest
Garuda Lions Prediction: Paks
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Paks vs MTK Budapest overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Paks vs MTK Budapest
| Probability | Paks | Draw | MTK Budapest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.9% | 23.2% | 35.8% |
| Market | 44.5% | 23.2% | 32.3% |
| Final | 43.6% | 23.2% | 33.2% |
| Edge | -3.6% | +0.1% | +3.5% |
Why Paks
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.14, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Paks vs MTK Budapest match preview
Paks and MTK Budapest are set to face off in an intriguing match, with model probabilities indicating a 41% chance of a Paks victory, a 36% chance for MTK Budapest, and a 23% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals for Paks stand at 1.92, while MTK Budapest is projected to score 1.79, suggesting a closely contested encounter. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Paks, which occurs with an 8% probability.
Recent form shows Paks with a mixed record of W-L-D-W-L-D, while MTK Budapest has struggled, recording L-L-D-W-D-L in their last six matches. Notably, Paks has dominated their recent head-to-head encounters, winning all three of the last matches against MTK Budapest without conceding a draw. Both teams are expected to score, with a 72% probability for over 2.5 goals.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Paks and MTK Budapest expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.70
Paks and MTK Budapest attack and defence ratings
Paks
MTK Budapest
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Paks vs MTK Budapest markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paks | 43.6% | 2.29 | -3.6% | 2.14 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paks | 43.6% |
| Draw | 23.2% | |
| MTK Budapest | 33.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.9% |
| No | 28.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Paks win | 22.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.1% | |
| Loss | 59.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.1% | |
| 1-2 | 7.5% |
Paks vs MTK Budapest stats
Paks and MTK Budapest recent form
| Paks |
WLDWLD |
| MTK Budapest |
LLDWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Paks and MTK Budapest season so far
Paks record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
MTK Budapest record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Paks vs MTK Budapest head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | MTK Budapest | Paks | NB I | 0-2 |
| 2025-12-06 | Paks | MTK Budapest | NB I | 3-1 |
| 2025-08-24 | MTK Budapest | Paks | NB I | 2-3 |
| 2025-04-11 | MTK Budapest | Paks | NB I | 1-2 |
| 2024-12-07 | Paks | MTK Budapest | NB I | 4-2 |
| 2024-12-03 | MTK Budapest | Paks | NB I | 3-1 |
| 2024-03-03 | MTK Budapest | Paks | NB I | 0-2 |
| 2023-11-05 | Paks | MTK Budapest | NB I | 0-0 |
| 2023-07-28 | MTK Budapest | Paks | NB I | 1-1 |
| 2022-04-16 | Paks | MTK Budapest | NB I | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Paks vs MTK Budapest odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.5%, draw 23.2%, away 32.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.03 | 3.90 | 2.80 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.70 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 4.00 | 2.92 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.07 | 3.95 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.01 | 3.90 | 2.74 |
| Pinnacle | 2.14 | 4.12 | 2.79 |
| SBO | 1.93 | 3.54 | 2.71 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .