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NB I · Full time ·Matchday 9

Paks vs MTK Budapest

3 – 0 Full time

10′Vilius Armalas
19′Balázs Balogh
19′Ákos Kinyik
25′János Szabó
59′Kristof HinoraIstván Bognár
59′Gyorgy KomaromiSoma Szuhodovszki
67′Balázs BaloghKevin Horvath
69′Vilius ArmalasBenedek Varju
71′Jozsef SzalaiBarna Tóth
71′Zsolt HarasztiMilan Pető
74′Kevin Horvath
75′Barna Tóth
78′Adrian ZeljkovicSámuel Barnabás Bakó
78′Mark Kerezsi ZalanMilán Gábo Klausz
87′Soma Szuhodovszki
89′József WindeckerGergo Gyurkits
90′Milan Pető
90′Benedek Varju

Fehérvári úti stadion, PaksReferee: I. Kovacs

Paks 46%
Draw 23%
MTK Budapest 31%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

20 Shots 8
7 Shots on target 2
52 Possession % 48
6 Corners 4
13 Fouls 15
0 Offsides 1
2 Saves 4
261 Accurate passes 350

Paks vs MTK Budapest overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Paks vs MTK Budapest

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPaksDrawMTK Budapest
Model40.9%23.2%35.8%
Market47.8%22.8%29.4%
Final46.1%22.9%31.0%
Edge-1.7%+0.1%+1.6%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Paks

  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Paks ↓ / MTK Budapest → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 9% 8% 2 8% 7% 3 5% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 72%
No goals 3%

Paks and MTK Budapest expected goals

Paks 1.92
MTK Budapest 1.79

Total expected goals: 3.71

Paks and MTK Budapest attack and defence ratings

Paks

Attack 1.15 +15%
Defence 1.17 +17%

MTK Budapest

Attack 1.06 +6%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Paks vs MTK Budapest: result vs prediction

Paks 3 – 0 MTK Budapest

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

NB I

Before and after this match

Paks vs MTK Budapest markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Paks 46.1% 2.17 -1.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 71.6% 1.40 — —
Both teams to score Yes 71.9% 1.39 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 77.1% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 59.1% 1.69 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Paks46.1%
Draw22.9%
MTK Budapest31.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571.6%
Under 2.528.4%
Both teams to scoreYes71.9%
No28.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)69.0%
12 (either side)77.1%
X2 (draw or away)53.9%
Handicap -1Paks win22.8%
Push (exactly one goal)18.1%
Loss59.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.3%
2-18.1%
1-27.5%

Paks vs MTK Budapest stats

Paks and MTK Budapest recent form

newest first
Paks WLDWLD
MTK Budapest LLDWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Paks and MTK Budapest going into this match

league record before kick-off

Paks record

  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

MTK Budapest record

  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Paks vs MTK Budapest head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7Paks wins 2Draws 1MTK Budapest wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-20MTK BudapestPaksNB I0-2
2025-12-06PaksMTK BudapestNB I3-1
2025-08-24MTK BudapestPaksNB I2-3
2025-04-11MTK BudapestPaksNB I1-2
2024-12-07PaksMTK BudapestNB I4-2
2024-12-03MTK BudapestPaksNB I3-1
2024-03-03MTK BudapestPaksNB I0-2
2023-11-05PaksMTK BudapestNB I0-0
2023-07-28MTK BudapestPaksNB I1-1
2022-04-16PaksMTK BudapestNB I4-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Paks vs MTK Budapest odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 47.8%, draw 22.8%, away 29.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.87 4.00 3.11
Bet365 1.91 3.90 3.40
Betano 1.93 4.05 3.25
Betfair 1.91 4.00 2.90
Dafabet 1.98 4.00 3.15
Marathonbet 1.85 4.00 3.05
Pinnacle 1.93 4.38 3.26
SBO 1.95 3.65 2.77
William Hill 1.91 4.00 3.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.91 ▼ -0.04
X 4.00 —
2 3.11 ▲ +0.12

12 snapshots recorded, from .