Garuda Lions
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NB I · ·Matchday 9

Budapest Honved vs Ujpest

Garuda Lions Prediction: Ujpest

1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability

Bet on Ujpest

Bozsik József Stadion, Budapest

Budapest Honved 36%
Draw 25%
Ujpest 39%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Ujpest wins
39%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
97%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
74%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 2
8% of simulated outcomes

Budapest Honved vs Ujpest overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Budapest Honved vs Ujpest

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBudapest HonvedDrawUjpest
Model32.1%22.1%45.8%
Market37.5%25.7%36.8%
Final36.2%24.8%39.0%
Edge-5.4%-3.6%+9.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Ujpest

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.79.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Ujpest below the model: +9.0 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 2.57, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.

Budapest Honved vs Ujpest match preview

Budapest Honved faces Ujpest in an upcoming NB I match on October 11, 2026. The model indicates that Ujpest has a 46% chance of winning, while Budapest Honved stands at 32%, with a 22% probability for a draw. The expected goals for Budapest Honved are 1.79, compared to Ujpest's 2.15, suggesting a competitive encounter.

Recent form shows Budapest Honved struggling with two losses and only one win in their last six matches, while Ujpest has a stronger record with four wins in their last six games. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 1-2, with a high probability of over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams scoring at 74%.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Budapest Honve ↓ / Ujpest → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 4% 1 8% 8% 6% 5% 2 7% 7% 5% 5% 3 4% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 91%
3+ goals 75%
No goals 3%

Budapest Honved and Ujpest expected goals

Budapest Honved 1.79
Ujpest 2.15

Total expected goals: 3.94

Budapest Honved and Ujpest attack and defence ratings

Budapest Honved

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 1.21 +21%

Ujpest

Attack 1.23 +23%
Defence 1.12 +12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

NB I

Before and after this match

Budapest Honved vs Ujpest markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Ujpest 39.0% 2.56 +9.0% 2.57
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 75.3% 1.33 — —
Both teams to score Yes 74.4% 1.34 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.2% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.2% 1.84 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Budapest Honved36.2%
Draw24.8%
Ujpest39.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575.3%
Under 2.524.7%
Both teams to scoreYes74.4%
No25.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)61.0%
12 (either side)75.2%
X2 (draw or away)63.8%
Handicap -1Ujpest win27.1%
Push (exactly one goal)18.6%
Loss54.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-18.2%
1-28.0%
2-27.2%
Compare prices for this pick

Budapest Honved vs Ujpest stats

Budapest Honved and Ujpest recent form

newest first
Budapest Honved LLWLDD
Ujpest WDWLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Budapest Honved and Ujpest season so far

league record

Budapest Honved record

  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Ujpest record

  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Budapest Honved vs Ujpest head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Budapest Honved vs Ujpest odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 37.5%, draw 25.7%, away 36.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.38 3.45 2.45
Bet365 2.40 3.50 2.45
Betano 2.50 3.75 2.50
Betfair 2.38 3.60 2.45
Dafabet 2.45 3.65 2.55
Marathonbet 2.38 3.45 2.45
Pinnacle 2.53 3.55 2.57
SBO 2.29 3.25 2.35
William Hill 2.50 3.30 2.50
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.40 ▼ -0.02
X 3.50 ▼ -0.12
2 2.45 ▼ -0.04

10 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 Ujpest Predicted score 1 – 2 Low Bet Now
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