MTK Budapest
vs
Budapest Honved
Garuda Lions Prediction: MTK Budapest
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — MTK Budapest is the favourite, not a value bet.
MTK Budapest vs Budapest Honved overview
Garuda Lions analysis: MTK Budapest vs Budapest Honved
| Probability | MTK Budapest | Draw | Budapest Honved |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.1% | 27.6% | 45.3% |
| Market | 41.8% | 27.6% | 30.5% |
| Final | 38.2% | 27.6% | 34.2% |
| Edge | -3.7% | -0.0% | +3.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.24, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.5% per unit staked (our 38.2% × 2.24 − 1).
MTK Budapest vs Budapest Honved match preview
MTK Budapest faces Budapest Honved in an upcoming NB I match, with probabilities indicating a 38% chance of a home win for MTK, a 28% chance of a draw, and a 34% chance for an away victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of MTK, occurring with a 7% probability. The expected goals for MTK are 1.16, while Budapest Honved is projected at 1.55, suggesting a competitive match.
In terms of recent form, MTK Budapest has struggled, recording four consecutive losses followed by a win and another loss. Conversely, Budapest Honved has shown slightly better form, with two wins, a draw, and two losses in their last five matches. Historical head-to-head results show MTK with four wins, four draws, and two wins for Budapest Honved in their last ten encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
MTK Budapest and Budapest Honved expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.71
MTK Budapest and Budapest Honved attack and defence ratings
MTK Budapest
Budapest Honved
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
MTK Budapest vs Budapest Honved markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | MTK Budapest | 38.2% | 2.62 | -3.7% | 2.24 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.9% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | MTK Budapest | 38.2% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Budapest Honved | 34.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.2% |
| No | 44.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | MTK Budapest win | 11.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.8% | |
| Loss | 72.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | |
| 0-1 | 9.1% |
MTK Budapest vs Budapest Honved stats
MTK Budapest and Budapest Honved recent form
| MTK Budapest |
LLWLLL |
| Budapest Honved |
WLWDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
MTK Budapest and Budapest Honved season so far
MTK Budapest record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Budapest Honved record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
MTK Budapest vs Budapest Honved head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Budapest Honved | MTK Budapest | NB I | 3-3 |
| 2024-07-13 | MTK Budapest | Budapest Honved | Friendlies Clubs | 4-3 |
| 2024-01-24 | MTK Budapest | Budapest Honved | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2022-03-12 | MTK Budapest | Budapest Honved | NB I | 1-0 |
| 2021-11-21 | Budapest Honved | MTK Budapest | NB I | 3-0 |
| 2021-08-07 | MTK Budapest | Budapest Honved | NB I | 1-0 |
| 2021-03-02 | Budapest Honved | MTK Budapest | NB I | 3-2 |
| 2020-12-06 | Budapest Honved | MTK Budapest | NB I | 2-2 |
| 2020-08-21 | MTK Budapest | Budapest Honved | NB I | 3-1 |
| 2020-05-26 | Budapest Honved | MTK Budapest | Magyar Kupa | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
MTK Budapest vs Budapest Honved odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.8%, draw 27.6%, away 30.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.13 | 3.32 | 2.99 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.22 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.19 | 3.55 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.11 | 3.32 | 2.92 |
| Pinnacle | 2.24 | 3.53 | 3.13 |
| SBO | 2.08 | 3.13 | 2.71 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .