Garuda Lions
Today
NB I · Full time ·Matchday 7

MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda FC

1 – 2 Full time

11′Adrian Zeljković
46′T. YordanovB. Biro
46′A. EsikH. Szikszai
53′M. Matanovic
61′C. HercT. Balogun
62′H. Szikszai
63′A. ZeljkovicS. Szuhodovszki
63′A. NyersG. Komaromi
74′M. MatanovicL. Szor
79′Tibor Lippai
79′B. VarjuK. Hinora
79′P. KovacsM. Klausz
80′K. NagyA. Youga
88′M. Klausz

Referee: M. Derdak

MTK Budapest 49%
Draw 26%
Kisvarda FC 25%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

24 Shots 10
10 Shots on target 4
62 Possession % 38
6 Corners 1
12 Fouls 15
2 Saves 8
490 Accurate passes 285

MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMTK BudapestDrawKisvarda FC
Model52.6%26.8%20.5%
Market48.4%25.7%25.9%
Final49.5%26.0%24.5%
Edge+4.2%+1.1%-5.3%

Confidence: Low

Why MTK Budapest

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.95.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices MTK Budapest below the model: +4.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

MTK Budapest ↓ / Kisvarda FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 1 11% 13% 2 10% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 74%
3+ goals 48%
No goals 9%

MTK Budapest and Kisvarda FC expected goals

MTK Budapest 1.65
Kisvarda FC 0.95

Total expected goals: 2.60

MTK Budapest and Kisvarda FC attack and defence ratings

MTK Budapest

Attack 1.12 +12%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Kisvarda FC

Attack 0.70 -30%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda FC: result vs prediction

MTK Budapest 1 – 2 Kisvarda FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

NB I

Before and after this match

MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 MTK Budapest 49.5% 2.02 +4.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 51.9% 1.93 — —
Both teams to score Yes 50.7% 1.97 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 75.5% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.4% 2.11 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2MTK Budapest49.5%
Draw26.0%
Kisvarda FC24.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548.1%
Under 2.551.9%
Both teams to scoreYes50.7%
No49.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)75.5%
12 (either side)74.0%
X2 (draw or away)50.5%
Handicap -1MTK Budapest win29.1%
Push (exactly one goal)23.6%
Loss47.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.8%
1-011.1%
2-010.1%

MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda FC stats

MTK Budapest and Kisvarda FC recent form

newest first
MTK Budapest DWDLDW
Kisvarda FC DDLLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

MTK Budapest and Kisvarda FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

MTK Budapest record

  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.

Kisvarda FC record

  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4MTK Budapest wins 2Draws 4Kisvarda FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-18MTK BudapestKisvarda FCNB I2-1
2026-01-24Kisvarda FCMTK BudapestNB I2-3
2025-09-28MTK BudapestKisvarda FCNB I4-0
2024-04-02Kisvarda FCMTK BudapestMagyar Kupa3-2
2024-03-17MTK BudapestKisvarda FCNB I2-1
2023-11-25Kisvarda FCMTK BudapestNB I3-1
2023-08-11MTK BudapestKisvarda FCNB I0-0
2022-03-19MTK BudapestKisvarda FCNB I0-0
2021-11-27Kisvarda FCMTK BudapestNB I5-0
2021-10-27Kisvarda FCMTK BudapestMagyar Kupa4-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 47.1%, draw 25.6%, away 27.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.97 3.60 3.25
1xBet 1.87 3.52 3.56
Bet365 1.85 3.50 3.40
Betano 2.02 3.65 3.35
Betfair 2.00 3.70 3.10
Dafabet 2.02 3.60 3.35
Marathonbet 1.85 3.52 3.50
Pinnacle 1.94 3.81 3.63
SBO 1.93 3.20 2.96
Superbet 2.02 3.60 3.35
Unibet 1.96 3.60 3.55
William Hill 1.95 3.50 3.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.87 ▼ -0.09
X 3.52 ▼ -0.06
2 3.50 ▲ +0.20

9 snapshots recorded, from .