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NB I · Full time ·Matchday 7

Paks vs Debreceni VSC

2 – 4 Full time

6′A. Szendrei
22′A. Szendrei
24′Z. Haraszti
39′A. Guerrero
46′K. HorvathJ. Windecker
46′C. BelenyesiB. Toth
55′B. DzsudzsakC. Sain Balasz
68′D. PataiS. Samper
68′I. EgriS. Baldoni
68′A. SzendreiB. Adinany
71′G. Vas
75′A. LapuM. Simut
75′J. SzalaiJ. Galambos
76′P. AndreevB. Erdelyi
81′B. Toth
88′János Szabó
89′Csanád Vilmos Dénes

Referee: M. Kapraly

Paks 51%
Draw 24%
Debreceni VSC 26%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

34 Shots 12
13 Shots on target 6
51 Possession % 49
8 Corners 7
7 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 2
3 Saves 11
266 Accurate passes 250

Paks vs Debreceni VSC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Paks vs Debreceni VSC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPaksDrawDebreceni VSC
Model57.9%21.9%20.3%
Market48.4%24.2%27.4%
Final50.7%23.7%25.6%
Edge+9.5%-2.4%-7.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Paks

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.26.
  • The market prices Paks below the model: +9.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Paks ↓ / Debreceni VSC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 10% 6% 2 8% 10% 6% 3 6% 7% 4+ 5% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 67%
No goals 4%

Paks and Debreceni VSC expected goals

Paks 2.19
Debreceni VSC 1.26

Total expected goals: 3.46

Paks and Debreceni VSC attack and defence ratings

Paks

Attack 1.26 +26%
Defence 1.13 +13%

Debreceni VSC

Attack 0.78 -22%
Defence 1.09 +9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Paks vs Debreceni VSC: result vs prediction

Paks 2 – 4 Debreceni VSC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

NB I

Before and after this match

Paks vs Debreceni VSC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Paks 50.7% 1.97 +9.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 67.1% 1.49 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.5% 1.55 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.3% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 42.3% 2.37 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Paks50.7%
Draw23.7%
Debreceni VSC25.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567.1%
Under 2.532.9%
Both teams to scoreYes64.5%
No35.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.4%
12 (either side)76.3%
X2 (draw or away)49.3%
Handicap -1Paks win36.5%
Push (exactly one goal)21.2%
Loss42.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.6%
2-19.6%
2-07.6%

Paks vs Debreceni VSC stats

Paks and Debreceni VSC recent form

newest first
Paks DWLDLD
Debreceni VSC DDDLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Paks and Debreceni VSC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Paks record

  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Debreceni VSC record

  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Paks vs Debreceni VSC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Paks wins 4Draws 2Debreceni VSC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-03PaksDebreceni VSCNB I5-2
2026-02-07Debreceni VSCPaksNB I1-0
2025-10-18PaksDebreceni VSCNB I1-1
2025-05-18Debreceni VSCPaksNB I0-0
2025-02-22PaksDebreceni VSCNB I4-3
2024-10-19Debreceni VSCPaksNB I0-5
2024-03-10PaksDebreceni VSCNB I1-1
2023-11-12Debreceni VSCPaksNB I1-0
2023-09-27PaksDebreceni VSCNB I2-0
2023-05-06PaksDebreceni VSCNB I0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Paks vs Debreceni VSC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 47.8%, draw 24.6%, away 27.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.88 3.80 3.40
1xBet 1.88 3.75 3.32
Bet365 1.85 3.60 3.40
Betano 1.98 3.80 3.35
Betfair 1.91 3.90 3.30
Dafabet 1.98 3.75 3.35
Marathonbet 1.86 3.75 3.26
Pinnacle 1.93 4.09 3.44
SBO 1.93 3.32 2.85
Superbet 1.97 3.75 3.35
Unibet 2.02 3.90 3.15
William Hill 1.95 3.75 3.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.88 ▼ -0.10
X 3.75 ▲ +0.09
2 3.32 ▲ +0.12

10 snapshots recorded, from .