Stjarnan
vs
Thor Akureyri
4 – 2 Full time
Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri
| Probability | Stjarnan | Draw | Thor Akureyri |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.1% | 22.8% | 18.1% |
| Market | 64.2% | 18.4% | 17.4% |
| Final | 62.9% | 19.5% | 17.6% |
| Edge | -5.1% | +4.4% | +0.7% |
Why Stjarnan
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 1.07.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Stjarnan and Thor Akureyri expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.12
Stjarnan and Thor Akureyri attack and defence ratings
Stjarnan
Thor Akureyri
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri: result vs prediction
Stjarnan 4 – 2 Thor Akureyri
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 20 fixtures
Before and after this match
Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stjarnan | 62.9% | 1.59 | -5.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.4% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.9% | 2.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stjarnan | 62.9% |
| Draw | 19.5% | |
| Thor Akureyri | 17.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.2% |
| No | 41.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Stjarnan win | 36.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 40.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.3% |
Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri stats
Stjarnan and Thor Akureyri recent form
| Stjarnan |
LWWLLW |
| Thor Akureyri |
LLWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Stjarnan and Thor Akureyri going into this match
Stjarnan record
- They have won 8 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
Thor Akureyri record
- They have won 5 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 21 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Thor Akureyri | Stjarnan | Úrvalsdeild | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.0%, draw 18.5%, away 17.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.43 | 5.15 | 5.57 |
| 888Sport | 1.40 | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.42 | 4.50 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.33 | 4.20 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.47 | 4.90 | 5.20 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 5.00 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.46 | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.42 | 5.15 | 5.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.42 | 5.50 | 5.82 |
| SBO | 1.39 | 4.66 | 5.13 |
| Superbet | 1.45 | 5.00 | 5.10 |
| Unibet | 1.43 | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.80 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .