Hapoel Beer Sheva
vs
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Garuda Lions Prediction: Hapoel Tel Aviv
1 β 2 Predicted score Β· 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.13.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence β both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
| Probability | Hapoel Beer Sheva | Draw | Hapoel Tel Aviv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.6% | 23.1% | 57.3% |
| Market | 39.5% | 27.1% | 33.4% |
| Final | 34.5% | 26.1% | 39.4% |
| Edge | -5.0% | -1.0% | +6.0% |
Why Hapoel Tel Aviv
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Hapoel Tel Aviv below our published probability: +6.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.91, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +14.6% per unit staked (our 39.4% Γ 2.91 β 1).
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv match preview
Hapoel Beer Sheva faces Hapoel Tel Aviv in an intriguing Ligat Ha'al matchup. The probabilities suggest a competitive encounter, with Hapoel Beer Sheva at 35%, a draw at 26%, and Hapoel Tel Aviv slightly favored at 38%. The expected goals indicate a higher attacking output for Hapoel Tel Aviv at 1.96 compared to Hapoel Beer Sheva's 1.26. Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 1-2 in favor of Hapoel Tel Aviv, with a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% likelihood that both teams will score.
Recent form shows Hapoel Beer Sheva with three wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Hapoel Tel Aviv has five wins and one loss in the same period. In their last four head-to-head encounters, Hapoel Beer Sheva has won three times, while Hapoel Tel Aviv has secured one victory. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Hapoel Beer Sheva and Hapoel Tel Aviv expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.17
Hapoel Beer Sheva and Hapoel Tel Aviv attack and defence ratings
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 39.4% | 2.54 | +6.0% | 2.91 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.4% | 1.63 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.9% | 1.67 | β | β |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.9% | 1.35 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.7% | 2.34 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 34.5% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Hapoel Tel Aviv | 39.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.9% |
| No | 40.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hapoel Tel Aviv win | 35.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 42.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 8.7% |
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv stats
Hapoel Beer Sheva and Hapoel Tel Aviv recent form
| Hapoel Beer Sheva |
LWWLWL |
| Hapoel Tel Aviv |
WWWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hapoel Beer Sheva and Hapoel Tel Aviv season so far
Hapoel Beer Sheva record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hapoel Tel Aviv record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | Hapoel Beer Sheva | Ligat Ha'al | 0-2 |
| 2026-05-02 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | Hapoel Tel Aviv | Ligat Ha'al | 2-0 |
| 2026-01-19 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | Hapoel Beer Sheva | Ligat Ha'al | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | Hapoel Tel Aviv | Ligat Ha'al | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.5%, draw 27.1%, away 33.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.38 | 3.36 | 2.72 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 3.35 | 2.85 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.26 | 3.35 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.38 | 3.36 | 2.72 |
| Pinnacle | 2.42 | 3.31 | 2.91 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .