Hapoel Tel Aviv
vs
Maccabi Haifa
Garuda Lions Prediction: Hapoel Tel Aviv
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 1.27.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Haifa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Haifa
| Probability | Hapoel Tel Aviv | Draw | Maccabi Haifa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.5% | 25.3% | 26.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 48.5% | 25.3% | 26.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Hapoel Tel Aviv
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 1.27.
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Haifa match preview
Hapoel Tel Aviv faces Maccabi Haifa in a matchup where the probabilities suggest a competitive encounter. Hapoel Tel Aviv has a 49% chance of winning, while Maccabi Haifa stands at 26%, with a 25% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals for Hapoel Tel Aviv are 1.79, compared to Maccabi Haifa's 1.27, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
Recent form shows Hapoel Tel Aviv with four wins and one loss in their last six matches, while Maccabi Haifa has also performed well with four wins and one loss. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Hapoel Tel Aviv, with a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Hapoel Tel Aviv and Maccabi Haifa expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.06
Hapoel Tel Aviv and Maccabi Haifa attack and defence ratings
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Maccabi Haifa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Haifa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 48.5% | 2.06 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 48.5% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| Maccabi Haifa | 26.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.9% |
| No | 39.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hapoel Tel Aviv win | 27.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 51.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.5% |
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Haifa stats
Hapoel Tel Aviv and Maccabi Haifa recent form
| Hapoel Tel Aviv |
WWWWLW |
| Maccabi Haifa |
WWWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hapoel Tel Aviv and Maccabi Haifa season so far
Hapoel Tel Aviv record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Maccabi Haifa record
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Haifa head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | Maccabi Haifa | Hapoel Tel Aviv | Ligat Ha'al | 4-1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | Maccabi Haifa | Ligat Ha'al | 4-0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | Maccabi Haifa | Ligat Ha'al | 2-0 |
| 2025-12-02 | Maccabi Haifa | Hapoel Tel Aviv | Ligat Ha'al | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.