Cerezo Osaka
vs
Shimizu S-pulse
1 – 0 Full time
Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-pulse overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-pulse
| Probability | Cerezo Osaka | Draw | Shimizu S-pulse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.3% | 24.9% | 18.8% |
| Market | 41.5% | 27.9% | 30.7% |
| Final | 45.2% | 27.1% | 27.7% |
| Edge | +14.8% | -2.9% | -11.9% |
Why Cerezo Osaka
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cerezo Osaka below the model: +14.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cerezo Osaka and Shimizu S-pulse expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.80
Cerezo Osaka and Shimizu S-pulse attack and defence ratings
Cerezo Osaka
Shimizu S-pulse
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-pulse: result vs prediction
Cerezo Osaka 1 – 0 Shimizu S-pulse
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Kashiwa Reysol v V-varen Nagasaki — match page
- FC Tokyo vs JEF United Chiba
- Kashima vs Avispa Fukuoka
- Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo Verdy — team news & stats
- Kyoto Sanga vs Mito Hollyhock — team news & stats
- Nagoya Grampus v Gamba Osaka — match page
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kawasaki Frontale
- Yokohama F. Marinos v Vissel Kobe — match page
Before and after this match
Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-pulse markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cerezo Osaka | 45.2% | 2.21 | +14.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.6% | 2.29 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cerezo Osaka | 45.2% |
| Draw | 27.1% | |
| Shimizu S-pulse | 27.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.3% |
| No | 46.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cerezo Osaka win | 33.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 43.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 2-0 | 10.1% | |
| 1-0 | 10.0% |
Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-pulse stats
Cerezo Osaka and Shimizu S-pulse recent form
| Cerezo Osaka |
LWWDWW |
| Shimizu S-pulse |
LWLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cerezo Osaka and Shimizu S-pulse going into this match
Cerezo Osaka record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Shimizu S-pulse record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-pulse head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Shimizu S-pulse | Cerezo Osaka | J1 League | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Cerezo Osaka | Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-pulse odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.5%, draw 27.9%, away 30.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.25 | 3.45 | 3.00 |
| 1xBet | 2.29 | 3.42 | 3.14 |
| 888Sport | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.35 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.29 | 3.50 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.25 | 3.34 | 3.04 |
| Pinnacle | 2.32 | 3.48 | 3.18 |
| SBO | 2.13 | 3.15 | 2.90 |
| Superbet | 2.25 | 3.35 | 3.10 |
| Unibet | 2.17 | 3.35 | 3.05 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.00 |