Machida Zelvia
vs
Urawa
3 – 1 Full time
Machida Zelvia vs Urawa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Machida Zelvia vs Urawa
| Probability | Machida Zelvia | Draw | Urawa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.6% | 18.7% | 10.7% |
| Market | 48.3% | 28.5% | 23.2% |
| Final | 53.8% | 26.1% | 20.1% |
| Edge | +22.3% | -9.8% | -12.5% |
Why Machida Zelvia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.36 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Machida Zelvia below the model: +22.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Machida Zelvia and Urawa expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.20
Machida Zelvia and Urawa attack and defence ratings
Machida Zelvia
Urawa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Machida Zelvia vs Urawa: result vs prediction
Machida Zelvia 3 – 1 Urawa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Kashiwa Reysol v V-varen Nagasaki — match page
- FC Tokyo vs JEF United Chiba
- Kashima vs Avispa Fukuoka
- Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo Verdy — team news & stats
- Kyoto Sanga vs Mito Hollyhock — team news & stats
- Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-pulse — team news & stats
- Nagoya Grampus v Gamba Osaka — match page
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kawasaki Frontale
Before and after this match
Machida Zelvia vs Urawa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Machida Zelvia | 53.8% | 1.86 | +22.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.9% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Machida Zelvia win | 48.5% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Machida Zelvia | 53.8% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Urawa | 20.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.2% |
| No | 47.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Machida Zelvia win | 48.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 29.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 3-0 | 9.0% |
Machida Zelvia vs Urawa stats
Machida Zelvia and Urawa recent form
| Machida Zelvia |
WWWDWD |
| Urawa |
LLLDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Machida Zelvia and Urawa going into this match
Machida Zelvia record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Urawa record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Machida Zelvia vs Urawa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | Machida Zelvia | Urawa | J1 League | 1-0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Urawa | Machida Zelvia | J1 League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Machida Zelvia vs Urawa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.4%, draw 28.4%, away 23.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.77 | 3.50 | 4.60 |
| 1xBet | 1.95 | 3.41 | 4.14 |
| 888Sport | 1.75 | 3.30 | 4.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.91 | 3.30 | 4.05 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.25 | 3.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.90 | 3.35 | 4.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.99 | 3.47 | 4.09 |
| SBO | 1.94 | 3.26 | 3.76 |
| Superbet | 1.92 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| Unibet | 1.75 | 3.45 | 4.40 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .