Politehnica UTM
vs
Sheriff Tiraspol
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sheriff Tiraspol
1 β 2 Predicted score Β· 9% model probability
Politehnica UTM vs Sheriff Tiraspol overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Politehnica UTM vs Sheriff Tiraspol
| Probability | Politehnica UTM | Draw | Sheriff Tiraspol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.6% | 22.0% | 54.4% |
| Market | β | β | β |
| Final | 23.6% | 22.0% | 54.4% |
| Edge | β | β | β |
Why Sheriff Tiraspol
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.21 vs 1.43.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Politehnica UTM vs Sheriff Tiraspol match preview
Politehnica UTM faces Sheriff Tiraspol in the Moldova Super Liga, with kickoff scheduled for October 24, 2026. According to our model, Sheriff Tiraspol holds a 54% probability of winning, while Politehnica UTM has a 24% chance, and a draw sits at 22%. The expected goals for Politehnica UTM is 1.43, compared to Sheriff Tiraspol's 2.21, suggesting a competitive match.
Recent form indicates that Politehnica UTM has struggled, recording two draws and three losses in their last six matches. In contrast, Sheriff Tiraspol has been in strong form, winning four of their last six games. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Politehnica UTM and Sheriff Tiraspol expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.63
Politehnica UTM and Sheriff Tiraspol attack and defence ratings
Politehnica UTM
Sheriff Tiraspol
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Politehnica UTM vs Sheriff Tiraspol markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 54.4% | 1.84 | β | β |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.3% | 1.42 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.4% | 1.46 | β | β |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.0% | 1.28 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.6% | 2.19 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Politehnica UTM | 23.6% |
| Draw | 22.0% | |
| Sheriff Tiraspol | 54.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.4% |
| No | 31.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 45.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sheriff Tiraspol win | 34.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 45.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.2% |
| 1-1 | 9.2% | |
| 1-3 | 6.8% |
Politehnica UTM vs Sheriff Tiraspol stats
Politehnica UTM and Sheriff Tiraspol recent form
| Politehnica UTM |
DLLWDL |
| Sheriff Tiraspol |
WWWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Politehnica UTM and Sheriff Tiraspol season so far
Politehnica UTM record
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sheriff Tiraspol record
- They have won 9 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.3 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Politehnica UTM vs Sheriff Tiraspol head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Sheriff Tiraspol | Politehnica UTM | Moldova Super Liga | 4-0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Politehnica UTM | Sheriff Tiraspol | Moldova Super Liga | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Politehnica UTM | Sheriff Tiraspol | Moldova Super Liga | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-10 | Sheriff Tiraspol | Politehnica UTM | Moldova Super Liga | 3-0 |
| 2025-06-22 | Politehnica UTM | Sheriff Tiraspol | Moldova Super Liga | 0-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.