Sheriff Tiraspol
vs
Zimbru
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sheriff Tiraspol
2 β 1 Predicted score Β· 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.14.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Zimbru overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sheriff Tiraspol vs Zimbru
| Probability | Sheriff Tiraspol | Draw | Zimbru |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.6% | 24.6% | 21.8% |
| Market | β | β | β |
| Final | 53.6% | 24.6% | 21.8% |
| Edge | β | β | β |
Why Sheriff Tiraspol
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Zimbru match preview
Sheriff Tiraspol enters this match with a strong recent form, recording five wins and one draw in their last six matches. They have an expected goals figure of 1.88, indicating a solid attacking performance. In contrast, Zimbru has a mixed recent record with two draws, one loss, and three wins in their last six games, and an expected goals of 1.14.
According to our model, Sheriff Tiraspol has a 54% probability of winning, while Zimbru stands at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Sheriff Tiraspol, which aligns with the 58% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance for both teams to score. In their last ten encounters, Sheriff Tiraspol has achieved five wins compared to Zimbru's four, suggesting a competitive matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sheriff Tiraspol and Zimbru expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.01
Sheriff Tiraspol and Zimbru attack and defence ratings
Sheriff Tiraspol
Zimbru
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 17 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Zimbru markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 53.6% | 1.87 | β | β |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.0% | 1.72 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.6% | 1.71 | β | β |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.2% | 1.28 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.4% | 2.15 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 53.6% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| Zimbru | 21.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.6% |
| No | 41.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sheriff Tiraspol win | 31.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 46.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.6% |
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Zimbru stats
Sheriff Tiraspol and Zimbru recent form
| Sheriff Tiraspol |
WWWWWD |
| Zimbru |
DDLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sheriff Tiraspol and Zimbru season so far
Sheriff Tiraspol record
- They have won 10 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.9 goals per game at home against 2.3 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Zimbru record
- They have won 8 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Zimbru head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Zimbru | Sheriff Tiraspol | Moldova Super Liga | 2-1 |
| 2026-07-12 | Sheriff Tiraspol | Zimbru | Moldova Super Liga | 4-2 |
| 2026-05-23 | Sheriff Tiraspol | Zimbru | Cupa | 2-0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Sheriff Tiraspol | Zimbru | Moldova Super Liga | 1-0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Zimbru | Sheriff Tiraspol | Moldova Super Liga | 2-2 |
| 2025-11-23 | Sheriff Tiraspol | Zimbru | Moldova Super Liga | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-21 | Zimbru | Sheriff Tiraspol | Moldova Super Liga | 2-0 |
| 2025-07-27 | Sheriff Tiraspol | Zimbru | Moldova Super Liga | 2-3 |
| 2025-05-14 | Sheriff Tiraspol | Zimbru | Cupa | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-30 | Zimbru | Sheriff Tiraspol | Cupa | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.