Bokelj
vs
Mornar
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mornar
0 β 1 Predicted score Β· 11% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this β Mornar is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bokelj vs Mornar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bokelj vs Mornar
| Probability | Bokelj | Draw | Mornar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.8% | 33.6% | 29.6% |
| Market | 27.4% | 31.8% | 40.8% |
| Final | 29.7% | 32.3% | 38.0% |
| Edge | +2.4% | +0.4% | -2.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.2% per unit staked (our 38.0% Γ 2.31 β 1).
Bokelj vs Mornar match preview
Bokelj and Mornar are set to face off in the Montenegro First League, with kickoff scheduled for November 6, 2026. According to the model, Bokelj has a 30% chance of winning, while Mornar is favored at 38%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1 in favor of Mornar, with an 11% probability. Expected goals for Bokelj stand at 1.06, compared to Mornar's 0.92.
In terms of recent form, Bokelj has recorded one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches, while Mornar has a mixed record with two wins, three draws, and one loss. The head-to-head statistics favor Mornar, who has won six out of the last ten encounters, with Bokelj securing just one victory and three matches ending in draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bokelj and Mornar expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.99
Bokelj and Mornar attack and defence ratings
Bokelj
Mornar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bokelj vs Mornar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mornar | 38.0% | 2.63 | -2.8% | 2.31 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.1% | 1.47 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.2% | 1.69 | β | β |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 70.3% | 1.42 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 70.4% | 1.42 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bokelj | 29.7% |
| Draw | 32.3% | |
| Mornar | 38.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.8% |
| No | 59.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mornar win | 10.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.7% | |
| Loss | 70.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.1% |
| 1-1 | 14.8% | |
| 1-0 | 13.2% |
Bokelj vs Mornar stats
Bokelj and Mornar recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bokelj and Mornar season so far
Bokelj record
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 13 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mornar record
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 14 matches.
Bokelj vs Mornar head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Mornar | Bokelj | Montenegro First League | 2-0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Mornar | Bokelj | Montenegro First League | 0-0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Bokelj | Mornar | Montenegro First League | 1-2 |
| 2025-11-09 | Mornar | Bokelj | Montenegro First League | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Bokelj | Mornar | Montenegro First League | 1-2 |
| 2025-05-18 | Mornar | Bokelj | First League | 4-1 |
| 2025-03-29 | Bokelj | Mornar | First League | 0-2 |
| 2024-11-27 | Mornar | Bokelj | Cup | 3-0 |
| 2024-11-23 | Mornar | Bokelj | First League | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-22 | Bokelj | Mornar | First League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bokelj vs Mornar odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.4%, draw 31.8%, away 40.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.38 | 2.82 | 2.18 |
| Bet365 | 3.20 | 3.00 | 2.15 |
| BetVictor | 3.25 | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 3.30 | 2.90 | 2.27 |
| Betfair | 3.25 | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 3.45 | 2.80 | 2.31 |
| Marathonbet | 3.28 | 2.82 | 2.16 |
| Pinnacle | 3.43 | 2.78 | 2.30 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 2.70 | 2.25 |