Garuda Lions
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Montenegro First League Β· Β·Matchday 15

Arsenal Tivat vs Jezero

Garuda Lions Prediction: Jezero

1 – 2 Predicted score Β· 9% model probability

  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this β€” Jezero is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on Jezero

Stadion u Parku, Tivat

Arsenal Tivat 32%
Draw 29%
Jezero 40%

Confidence: Low  Β·  blended with market odds

Chance Jezero wins
40%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
94%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
61%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 2
9% of simulated outcomes

Arsenal Tivat vs Jezero overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Arsenal Tivat vs Jezero

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityArsenal TivatDrawJezero
Model35.7%26.8%37.4%
Market30.2%29.2%40.6%
Final31.6%28.6%39.8%
Edge+1.4%-0.6%-0.8%

Confidence: Low Β· Edge = Final minus Market

Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded β€” the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.5% per unit staked (our 39.8% Γ— 2.50 βˆ’ 1).

Arsenal Tivat vs Jezero match preview

Arsenal Tivat faces Jezero in a Montenegro First League clash, with both teams showing mixed recent form. Arsenal Tivat's last five matches include one win, two draws, and two losses, while Jezero has recorded one win, three draws, and one loss in their recent outings. According to our model, the probabilities for this match are closely contested, with Arsenal Tivat at 36%, a draw at 27%, and Jezero slightly ahead at 37%.

The expected goals for the match indicate a competitive encounter, with Arsenal Tivat projected at 1.45 and Jezero at 1.49. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2 in favor of Jezero, occurring with a probability of 9%. Additionally, there is a 56% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance that both teams will score.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Arsenal Tivat ↓ / Jezero β†’ 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 7% 1 7% 13% 9% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 56%
No goals 6%

Arsenal Tivat and Jezero expected goals

Arsenal Tivat 1.45
Jezero 1.49

Total expected goals: 2.95

Arsenal Tivat and Jezero attack and defence ratings

Arsenal Tivat

Attack 0.85 -15%
Defence 1.36 +36%

Jezero

Attack 1.11 +11%
Defence 1.26 +26%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Montenegro First League

Before and after this match

Arsenal Tivat vs Jezero markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Jezero 39.8% 2.51 -0.8% 2.50
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 56.5% 1.77 β€” β€”
Both teams to score Yes 60.5% 1.65 β€” β€”
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.4% 1.40 β€” β€”
Handicap -1 Loss 62.6% 1.60 β€” β€”

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Arsenal Tivat31.6%
Draw28.6%
Jezero39.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556.5%
Under 2.543.5%
Both teams to scoreYes60.5%
No39.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)60.2%
12 (either side)71.4%
X2 (draw or away)68.4%
Handicap -1Jezero win18.5%
Push (exactly one goal)18.9%
Loss62.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.5%
1-28.5%
2-18.3%
Compare prices for this pick

Arsenal Tivat vs Jezero stats

Arsenal Tivat and Jezero recent form

newest first
Arsenal Tivat LDDLLW
Jezero WDLDDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Arsenal Tivat and Jezero season so far

league record

Arsenal Tivat record

  • They have won 1 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.1 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 13 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

Jezero record

  • They have won 3 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 14 matches.

Arsenal Tivat vs Jezero head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

0Arsenal Tivat wins 4Draws 6Jezero wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-09-05JezeroArsenal TivatMontenegro First League5-2
2026-05-02JezeroArsenal TivatMontenegro First League0-0
2026-03-07Arsenal TivatJezeroMontenegro First League1-2
2026-02-05Arsenal TivatJezeroFriendlies Clubs1-3
2025-11-02JezeroArsenal TivatMontenegro First League2-0
2025-08-30Arsenal TivatJezeroMontenegro First League2-2
2025-05-24Arsenal TivatJezeroFirst League0-0
2025-04-02JezeroArsenal TivatFirst League2-0
2024-12-01Arsenal TivatJezeroFirst League0-1
2024-09-28JezeroArsenal TivatFirst League0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Arsenal Tivat vs Jezero odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 30.2%, draw 29.2%, away 40.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.08 3.05 2.19
Bet365 2.50 3.10 2.50
Betano 2.87 3.25 2.30
Betfair 3.00 3.10 2.20
Dafabet 3.10 3.15 2.28
Marathonbet 3.00 3.05 2.17
Pinnacle 3.12 3.11 2.26
William Hill 3.00 2.88 2.20
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far β€” movement needs at least two.

Prediction snapshot 2 Jezero Predicted score 1 – 2 Low Bet Now
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