Jezero
vs
Dečić
Garuda Lions Prediction: Jezero
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 0.95.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Jezero vs Dečić overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Jezero vs Dečić
| Probability | Jezero | Draw | Dečić |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.7% | 29.0% | 23.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 47.7% | 29.0% | 23.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Jezero
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 0.95.
Jezero vs Dečić match preview
Jezero and Dečić are set to face off in the Montenegro First League, with Jezero holding a 48% probability of winning compared to Dečić's 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring with a 12% probability. Jezero's expected goals stand at 1.46, while Dečić is projected at 0.95. Both teams have struggled recently, with Jezero recording a series of draws and losses, and Dečić also experiencing a poor run of form.
In their last five encounters, Jezero has secured one win, while Dečić has dominated with four victories. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 43%, and both teams scoring is predicted at 48%. With a confidence grade of C, the match presents an intriguing contest between two teams in need of a turnaround.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Jezero and Dečić expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.41
Jezero and Dečić attack and defence ratings
Jezero
Dečić
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Jezero vs Dečić markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jezero | 47.7% | 2.09 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.7% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jezero | 47.7% |
| Draw | 29.0% | |
| Dečić | 23.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.3% |
| No | 51.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Jezero win | 24.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 52.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 11.9% | |
| 0-0 | 10.2% |
Jezero vs Dečić stats
Jezero and Dečić recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Jezero and Dečić season so far
Jezero record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dečić record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jezero vs Dečić head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Dečić | Jezero | Montenegro First League | 2-1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Dečić | Jezero | Montenegro First League | 3-0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Jezero | Dečić | Montenegro First League | 1-2 |
| 2025-11-09 | Dečić | Jezero | Montenegro First League | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Jezero | Dečić | Montenegro First League | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.