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Montenegro First League · Full time ·Matchday 6

Jezero vs Arsenal Tivat

5 – 2 Full time

20′G. Petovic
20′M. Raicevic
24′A. Nishimura
27′I. Vukcevic
31′A. Nishimura
38′A. Abdullahi
40′K. Vujacic
59′S. Sesay
60′K. VujacicM. Maras
63′A. SkrijeljI. Redzepagic
68′M. Raicevic
73′D. Jovanovic
75′G. PetovicR. Kaneda
75′A. AbdullahiM. Djukanovic
82′D. Jovanovic
84′A. NishimuraE. Redzepagic
84′M. RaicevicI. Tucevic
85′I. VukcevicA. Golub
85′S. SesayN. Erakovic
88′M. BojovicR. Markovic
88′D. JovanovicB. Boricic

Stadion Pod Racinom, Plav

Jezero 40%
Draw 33%
Arsenal Tivat 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Jezero vs Arsenal Tivat overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Jezero vs Arsenal Tivat

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityJezeroDrawArsenal Tivat
Model41.6%35.1%23.2%
Market38.8%31.8%29.4%
Final39.5%32.6%27.9%
Edge+2.8%+3.3%-6.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Jezero

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.06 vs 0.71.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Jezero below the model: +2.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Jezero ↓ / Arsenal Tivat → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 18% 11% 1 17% 14% 2 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 82%
2+ goals 54%
3+ goals 26%
No goals 18%

Jezero and Arsenal Tivat expected goals

Jezero 1.06
Arsenal Tivat 0.71

Total expected goals: 1.77

Jezero and Arsenal Tivat attack and defence ratings

Jezero

Attack 0.92 -8%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Arsenal Tivat

Attack 0.72 -28%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Jezero vs Arsenal Tivat: result vs prediction

Jezero 5 – 2 Arsenal Tivat

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Montenegro First League

Before and after this match

Jezero vs Arsenal Tivat markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Jezero 39.5% 2.53 +2.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 73.9% 1.35 — —
Both teams to score No 65.5% 1.53 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 72.1% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 58.0% 1.72 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Jezero39.5%
Draw32.6%
Arsenal Tivat27.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.526.1%
Under 2.573.9%
Both teams to scoreYes34.5%
No65.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)72.1%
12 (either side)67.4%
X2 (draw or away)60.5%
Handicap -1Jezero win17.6%
Push (exactly one goal)24.5%
Loss58.0%
Correct score (top 3)0-018.4%
1-016.7%
1-114.1%

Jezero vs Arsenal Tivat stats

Jezero and Arsenal Tivat recent form

newest first
Jezero LDLWDW
Arsenal Tivat LDDDDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Jezero and Arsenal Tivat going into this match

league record before kick-off

Jezero record

  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.

Arsenal Tivat record

  • They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.

Jezero vs Arsenal Tivat head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Jezero wins 4Draws 0Arsenal Tivat wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-02JezeroArsenal TivatMontenegro First League0-0
2026-03-07Arsenal TivatJezeroMontenegro First League1-2
2026-02-05Arsenal TivatJezeroFriendlies Clubs1-3
2025-11-02JezeroArsenal TivatMontenegro First League2-0
2025-08-30Arsenal TivatJezeroMontenegro First League2-2
2025-05-24Arsenal TivatJezeroFirst League0-0
2025-04-02JezeroArsenal TivatFirst League2-0
2024-12-01Arsenal TivatJezeroFirst League0-1
2024-09-28JezeroArsenal TivatFirst League0-0
2024-04-07JezeroArsenal TivatFirst League4-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Jezero vs Arsenal Tivat odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 39.5%, draw 31.3%, away 29.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.34 2.83 3.11
Bet365 2.25 3.00 3.00
BetVictor 2.30 2.90 3.13
Betano 2.27 2.95 3.20
Betfair 2.05 3.00 3.50
Dafabet 2.29 3.00 3.25
Marathonbet 2.32 2.83 3.04
Pinnacle 2.37 2.86 3.12
William Hill 2.40 2.70 2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.33 ▲ +0.08
X 2.84 ▼ -0.13
2 3.08 ▼ -0.13

3 snapshots recorded, from .