Garuda Lions
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KNVB Beker · Full time ·1st Preliminary Round

ADO '20 vs Excelsior Maassluis

1 – 1 Full time

23′ADO '20
69′ADO '20
70′M. Tahiri
120′ADO '20
120′Excelsior Maassluis
120′Excelsior Maassluis
120′ADO '20
120′Excelsior Maassluis
120′ADO '20
120′Excelsior Maassluis
120′ADO '20
120′Excelsior Maassluis
ADO '20 35%
Draw 25%
Excelsior Maassluis 39%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

ADO '20 vs Excelsior Maassluis overview

Garuda Lions analysis: ADO '20 vs Excelsior Maassluis

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityADO '20DrawExcelsior Maassluis
Model34.5%21.6%43.8%
Market35.8%26.5%37.8%
Final35.5%25.3%39.3%
Edge-1.2%-4.8%+6.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Excelsior Maassluis

  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 3 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Excelsior Maassluis below the model: +6.0 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

ADO '20 ↓ / Excelsior Maas → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 4% 1 8% 8% 5% 5% 2 7% 7% 5% 5% 3 4% 5% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 92%
3+ goals 78%
No goals 2%

ADO '20 and Excelsior Maassluis expected goals

ADO '20 1.93
Excelsior Maassluis 2.18

Total expected goals: 4.11

ADO '20 and Excelsior Maassluis attack and defence ratings

ADO '20

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Excelsior Maassluis

Attack 1.12 +12%
Defence 1.18 +18%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

ADO '20 vs Excelsior Maassluis: result vs prediction

ADO '20 1 – 1 Excelsior Maassluis

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other 1st Preliminary Round fixtures

KNVB Beker

Before and after this match

ADO '20 vs Excelsior Maassluis markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Excelsior Maassluis 39.3% 2.55 +6.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 77.8% 1.29 — —
Both teams to score Yes 76.5% 1.31 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.7% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 56.2% 1.78 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2ADO '2035.5%
Draw25.3%
Excelsior Maassluis39.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.577.8%
Under 2.522.2%
Both teams to scoreYes76.5%
No23.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)60.7%
12 (either side)74.7%
X2 (draw or away)64.5%
Handicap -1Excelsior Maassluis win25.9%
Push (exactly one goal)18.0%
Loss56.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-17.6%
1-27.5%
2-27.3%

ADO '20 vs Excelsior Maassluis stats

ADO '20 and Excelsior Maassluis recent form

newest first
ADO '20 L
Excelsior Maassluis LWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.

ADO '20 vs Excelsior Maassluis head-to-head

Last 4 meetings

2ADO '20 wins 0Draws 2Excelsior Maassluis wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-05-17Excelsior MaassluisADO '20Tweede Divisie2-0
2025-02-04ADO '20Excelsior MaassluisTweede Divisie0-4
2024-03-23ADO '20Excelsior MaassluisTweede Divisie3-0
2023-10-14Excelsior MaassluisADO '20Tweede Divisie0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

ADO '20 vs Excelsior Maassluis odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 35.8%, draw 26.5%, away 37.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.50 3.40 2.35
1xBet 2.83 3.42 2.34
Bet365 2.50 3.60 2.60
BetVictor 2.63 3.40 2.38
Betano 2.45 3.45 2.55
Betfair 2.55 3.50 2.38
Dafabet 2.50 3.70 2.60
Marathonbet 2.79 3.40 2.34
Pinnacle 2.80 3.39 2.25
Superbet 2.45 3.50 2.55
Unibet 2.35 3.25 2.55
William Hill 2.60 3.40 2.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.52 ▲ +0.07
X 3.41 ▼ -0.11
2 2.39 ▼ -0.16

2 snapshots recorded, from .