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KNVB Beker · Full time ·1st Preliminary Round

Harkemase Boys vs Excelsior '31

0 – 1 Full time

85′S. Holsink

De Bosk, Harkema

Harkemase Boys 39%
Draw 25%
Excelsior '31 36%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Harkemase Boys vs Excelsior '31 overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Harkemase Boys vs Excelsior '31

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHarkemase BoysDrawExcelsior '31
Model31.0%23.0%46.0%
Market41.2%25.6%33.2%
Final38.6%24.9%36.4%
Edge-10.2%-2.6%+12.8%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Harkemase Boys ↓ / Excelsior '31 → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 1 9% 9% 6% 5% 2 7% 7% 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 71%
No goals 3%

Harkemase Boys and Excelsior '31 expected goals

Harkemase Boys 1.65
Excelsior '31 2.03

Total expected goals: 3.68

Harkemase Boys and Excelsior '31 attack and defence ratings

Harkemase Boys

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Excelsior '31

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Harkemase Boys vs Excelsior '31: result vs prediction

Harkemase Boys 0 – 1 Excelsior '31

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other 1st Preliminary Round fixtures

KNVB Beker

Before and after this match

Harkemase Boys vs Excelsior '31 markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Harkemase Boys 38.6% 2.59 -10.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 71.2% 1.40 — —
Both teams to score Yes 71.1% 1.41 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.1% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 69.0% 1.45 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Harkemase Boys38.6%
Draw24.9%
Excelsior '3136.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571.2%
Under 2.528.8%
Both teams to scoreYes71.1%
No28.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)63.6%
12 (either side)75.1%
X2 (draw or away)61.4%
Handicap -1Harkemase Boys win15.5%
Push (exactly one goal)15.5%
Loss69.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.3%
1-28.6%
2-27.1%

Harkemase Boys vs Excelsior '31 stats

Harkemase Boys and Excelsior '31 recent form

newest first
Harkemase Boys L
Excelsior '31 LW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.

Harkemase Boys vs Excelsior '31 head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

5Harkemase Boys wins 0Draws 3Excelsior '31 wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-25Excelsior '31Harkemase BoysDerde Divisie0-1
2025-11-22Harkemase BoysExcelsior '31Derde Divisie1-2
2025-05-10Excelsior '31Harkemase BoysDerde Divisie1-5
2024-11-30Harkemase BoysExcelsior '31Derde Divisie1-0
2023-04-15Excelsior '31Harkemase BoysDerde Divisie4-2
2022-10-29Harkemase BoysExcelsior '31Derde Divisie2-0
2022-05-07Harkemase BoysExcelsior '31Derde Divisie2-0
2021-11-13Excelsior '31Harkemase BoysDerde Divisie3-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Harkemase Boys vs Excelsior '31 odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.2%, draw 25.6%, away 33.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.20 3.55 2.62
1xBet 2.24 3.55 2.90
Bet365 2.30 3.80 2.75
BetVictor 2.20 3.60 2.75
Betano 2.22 3.65 2.72
Betfair 2.20 3.60 2.63
Dafabet 2.31 3.90 2.80
Marathonbet 2.22 3.55 2.88
Pinnacle 2.13 3.36 2.79
Superbet 2.25 3.65 2.70
Unibet 2.15 3.50 2.70
William Hill 2.25 3.40 2.88

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.22 ▼ -0.06
X 3.58 ▼ -0.07
2 2.75 ▲ +0.05

2 snapshots recorded, from .