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KNVB Beker · Full time ·2nd Preliminary Round

Excelsior '31 vs AFC '34

4 – 3 Full time

13′K. Peppels
15′S. Holsink
17′H. Sprenkeling
40′J. Feijen
53′T. Glas
90′M. Schrijver
90′S. ter Haar
Excelsior '31 35%
Draw 23%
AFC '34 42%

Confidence: Low  ·  model-only, no market odds

Excelsior '31 vs AFC '34 overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Excelsior '31 vs AFC '34

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityExcelsior '31DrawAFC '34
Model35.1%22.5%42.4%
Market———
Final35.1%22.5%42.4%
Edge———

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Excelsior '31 ↓ / AFC '34 → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 4% 1 9% 8% 5% 4% 2 7% 7% 5% 3 4% 4% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 91%
3+ goals 74%
No goals 3%

Excelsior '31 and AFC '34 expected goals

Excelsior '31 1.85
AFC '34 2.04

Total expected goals: 3.88

Excelsior '31 and AFC '34 attack and defence ratings

Excelsior '31

Attack 1.04 +4%
Defence 0.87 -13%

AFC '34

Attack 1.17 +17%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Excelsior '31 vs AFC '34: result vs prediction

Excelsior '31 4 – 3 AFC '34

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other 2nd Preliminary Round fixtures

KNVB Beker

Before and after this match

Excelsior '31 vs AFC '34 markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 AFC '34 42.4% 2.36 — —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 74.4% 1.34 — —
Both teams to score Yes 74.0% 1.35 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 77.5% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 57.6% 1.74 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Excelsior '3135.1%
Draw22.5%
AFC '3442.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574.4%
Under 2.525.6%
Both teams to scoreYes74.0%
No26.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)57.6%
12 (either side)77.5%
X2 (draw or away)64.9%
Handicap -1AFC '34 win24.3%
Push (exactly one goal)18.1%
Loss57.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-18.5%
1-27.9%
2-27.3%

Excelsior '31 vs AFC '34 stats

Excelsior '31 and AFC '34 recent form

newest first
Excelsior '31 WLW
AFC '34 W

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.

Excelsior '31 vs AFC '34 head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Excelsior '31 vs AFC '34 odds

No bookmaker odds yet

Bookmakers usually price a fixture ~14 days before kickoff. We record snapshots twice a day, so the comparison table and price movement will appear here as soon as the market opens. Until then every probability on this page is model-only.