Garuda Lions
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KNVB Beker · Full time ·2nd Preliminary Round

Groene Ster vs AFC Amsterdam

1 – 6 Full time

6′S. de Mooij
27′S. de Mooij
31′F. van der Linden
33′T. Hovenkamp
59′J. de Kleijn
64′S. de Mooij
76′R. Fonseca
Groene Ster 25%
Draw 23%
AFC Amsterdam 52%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Groene Ster vs AFC Amsterdam overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Groene Ster vs AFC Amsterdam

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityGroene SterDrawAFC Amsterdam
Model36.2%24.4%39.4%
Market21.7%22.3%56.0%
Final25.3%22.8%51.9%
Edge+14.5%+2.1%-16.6%

Confidence: Low

Why AFC Amsterdam

  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 3 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Groene Ster ↓ / AFC Amsterdam → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 10% 8% 2 8% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 67%
No goals 4%

Groene Ster and AFC Amsterdam expected goals

Groene Ster 1.68
AFC Amsterdam 1.76

Total expected goals: 3.44

Groene Ster and AFC Amsterdam attack and defence ratings

Groene Ster

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 0.93 -7%

AFC Amsterdam

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Groene Ster vs AFC Amsterdam: result vs prediction

Groene Ster 1 – 6 AFC Amsterdam

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other 2nd Preliminary Round fixtures

KNVB Beker

Before and after this match

Groene Ster vs AFC Amsterdam markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 AFC Amsterdam 51.9% 1.93 -16.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 66.8% 1.50 — —
Both teams to score Yes 68.3% 1.46 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 77.2% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 60.6% 1.65 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Groene Ster25.3%
Draw22.8%
AFC Amsterdam51.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566.8%
Under 2.533.2%
Both teams to scoreYes68.3%
No31.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)48.1%
12 (either side)77.2%
X2 (draw or away)74.7%
Handicap -1AFC Amsterdam win21.1%
Push (exactly one goal)18.3%
Loss60.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.4%
1-28.3%
2-18.0%

Groene Ster vs AFC Amsterdam stats

Groene Ster and AFC Amsterdam recent form

newest first
Groene Ster WDD
AFC Amsterdam WLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.

Groene Ster vs AFC Amsterdam head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Groene Ster vs AFC Amsterdam odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 21.7%, draw 22.3%, away 56.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.34 4.05 1.59
Bet365 3.80 4.33 1.75
BetVictor 4.10 4.10 1.65
Betano 3.80 4.15 1.65
Betfair 4.33 4.20 1.57
Marathonbet 4.25 4.05 1.57
Pinnacle 4.11 3.98 1.58
William Hill 4.40 3.80 1.67

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.18 ▼ -0.19
X 4.07 ▼ -0.05
2 1.62 ▲ +0.04

2 snapshots recorded, from .