KNVB Beker
·
Full time
·2nd Preliminary Round
Noordwijk
vs
Frisia
1 – 0 Full time
| 27′ | Noordwijk |
Noordwijk
27%
Draw
24%
Frisia
49%
Noordwijk vs Frisia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Noordwijk vs Frisia
| Probability | Noordwijk | Draw | Frisia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.2% | 24.3% | 48.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 27.2% | 24.3% | 48.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Frisia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.39.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
85%
3+ goals
64%
No goals
5%
Noordwijk and Frisia expected goals
Noordwijk
1.39
Frisia
1.90
Total expected goals: 3.29
Noordwijk and Frisia attack and defence ratings
Noordwijk
Attack
0.87 -13%
Defence
0.81 -19%
Frisia
Attack
1.17 +17%
Defence
0.83 -17%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Noordwijk vs Frisia: result vs prediction
Noordwijk 1 – 0 Frisia
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other 2nd Preliminary Round fixtures
Before and after this match
Noordwijk vs Frisia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Frisia | 48.5% | 2.06 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.9% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.9% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Noordwijk | 27.2% |
| Draw | 24.3% | |
| Frisia | 48.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.9% |
| No | 35.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Frisia win | 27.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 51.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | |
| 2-1 | 6.8% |