Kwara United
vs
Rivers United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kwara United
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Kwara United vs Rivers United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kwara United vs Rivers United
| Probability | Kwara United | Draw | Rivers United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.1% | 35.0% | 29.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 35.1% | 35.0% | 29.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Kwara United vs Rivers United match preview
Kwara United faces Rivers United in the Nigeria Premier Football League with a kickoff scheduled for November 15, 2026. According to our model, Kwara United holds a 39% probability of winning, while a draw is at 33% and Rivers United at 28%. The expected goals for Kwara United are 1.09, compared to Rivers United's 0.89, suggesting a tight contest. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Kwara United, occurring with a 14% likelihood.
Recent form shows Kwara United with two draws and three losses in their last six matches, while Rivers United has recorded two draws and one win in the same span. In their last two encounters, Kwara United has yet to secure a win against Rivers United, with one draw and one loss. The model indicates a 41% chance for both teams to score and a 32% probability for over 2.5 goals in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kwara United and Rivers United expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.84
Kwara United and Rivers United attack and defence ratings
Kwara United
Rivers United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Kwara United vs Rivers United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kwara United | 35.1% | 2.85 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.9% | 1.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kwara United | 35.1% |
| Draw | 35.0% | |
| Rivers United | 29.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 71.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.5% |
| No | 62.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 65.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kwara United win | 13.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 64.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 17.1% |
| 1-1 | 14.8% | |
| 1-0 | 14.0% |
Kwara United vs Rivers United stats
Kwara United and Rivers United recent form
| Kwara United |
LLDDLW |
| Rivers United |
DLDDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kwara United and Rivers United season so far
Kwara United record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
Rivers United record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Kwara United vs Rivers United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-18 | Kwara United | Rivers United | Nigeria Premier Football League | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Rivers United | Kwara United | Nigeria Premier Football League | 1-0 |
| 2025-05-11 | Kwara United | Rivers United | NPFL | 3-1 |
| 2024-12-15 | Rivers United | Kwara United | NPFL | 2-1 |
| 2024-05-09 | Kwara United | Rivers United | NPFL | 0-0 |
| 2023-10-15 | Rivers United | Kwara United | NPFL | 0-0 |
| 2022-05-01 | Kwara United | Rivers United | NPFL | 2-1 |
| 2022-01-16 | Rivers United | Kwara United | NPFL | 3-0 |
| 2021-05-26 | Kwara United | Rivers United | NPFL | 1-1 |
| 2021-01-10 | Rivers United | Kwara United | NPFL | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.