Warri Wolves
vs
Sporting Lagos
Garuda Lions Prediction: Warri Wolves
1 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.35 vs 0.59.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Warri Wolves vs Sporting Lagos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Warri Wolves vs Sporting Lagos
| Probability | Warri Wolves | Draw | Sporting Lagos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.1% | 30.6% | 15.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 54.1% | 30.6% | 15.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Warri Wolves
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.35 vs 0.59.
Warri Wolves vs Sporting Lagos match preview
Warri Wolves enter this match with a probability of 52% to win against Sporting Lagos, who have a 16% chance of victory. The model anticipates a close contest, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 in favor of Warri Wolves, occurring at an 18% likelihood. The expected goals for Warri Wolves stand at 1.28, while Sporting Lagos is projected to score 0.61.
In terms of recent form, Warri Wolves have recorded three draws, one win, and two losses in their last six matches, while Sporting Lagos has two wins, three draws, and one loss. The probabilities indicate a 32% chance of a draw, with both teams to score at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 29%. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Warri Wolves and Sporting Lagos expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.94
Warri Wolves and Sporting Lagos attack and defence ratings
Warri Wolves
Sporting Lagos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Shooting Stars vs Bendel Insurance — team news & stats
- Doma United vs Barau FC
- Kano Pillars vs Ranchers Bees
- Enyimba v Ikorodu City — match page
- Inter Lagos vs Abia Warriors — team news & stats
- Katsina United v Nasarawa United — match page
- Kwara United vs Rivers United — team news & stats
- Niger Tornadoes vs Enugu Rangers
Before and after this match
Warri Wolves vs Sporting Lagos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Warri Wolves | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.2% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 65.7% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.8% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.9% | 2.18 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Warri Wolves | 54.1% |
| Draw | 30.6% | |
| Sporting Lagos | 15.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34.3% |
| No | 65.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Warri Wolves win | 27.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.0% | |
| Loss | 45.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 18.2% |
| 0-0 | 15.5% | |
| 2-0 | 13.0% |
Warri Wolves vs Sporting Lagos stats
Warri Wolves and Sporting Lagos recent form
| Warri Wolves |
DDDDWL |
| Sporting Lagos |
LWWDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Warri Wolves and Sporting Lagos season so far
Warri Wolves record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
Sporting Lagos record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.