Katsina United
vs
Nasarawa United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Katsina United
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.86.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Katsina United vs Nasarawa United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Katsina United vs Nasarawa United
| Probability | Katsina United | Draw | Nasarawa United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.9% | 26.7% | 18.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 54.9% | 26.7% | 18.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Katsina United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.86.
Katsina United vs Nasarawa United match preview
Katsina United is favored to win against Nasarawa United with a 58% probability, while a draw stands at 26% and Nasarawa United at 16%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Katsina United, with a 13% likelihood. Expected goals are estimated at 1.70 for Katsina United and 0.78 for Nasarawa United, indicating a stronger offensive performance from the home side.
In terms of recent form, Katsina United has recorded a sequence of W-D-L-W-D-D, while Nasarawa United has shown a more consistent performance with L-W-W-W-D-W. The head-to-head record from the last two encounters shows each team with one win. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Katsina United and Nasarawa United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.52
Katsina United and Nasarawa United attack and defence ratings
Katsina United
Nasarawa United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Katsina United vs Nasarawa United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Katsina United | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.7% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.1% | 2.22 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Katsina United | 54.9% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Nasarawa United | 18.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.9% |
| No | 52.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Katsina United win | 30.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 45.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 1-0 | 12.2% | |
| 2-0 | 11.0% |
Katsina United vs Nasarawa United stats
Katsina United and Nasarawa United recent form
| Katsina United |
DWDLWD |
| Nasarawa United |
WLWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Katsina United and Nasarawa United season so far
Katsina United record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
Nasarawa United record
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Katsina United vs Nasarawa United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Katsina United | Nasarawa United | Nigeria Premier Football League | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Nasarawa United | Katsina United | Nigeria Premier Football League | 2-0 |
| 2025-01-25 | Nasarawa United | Katsina United | NPFL | 1-0 |
| 2024-12-29 | Katsina United | Nasarawa United | NPFL | 1-0 |
| 2022-05-15 | Katsina United | Nasarawa United | NPFL | 1-0 |
| 2022-01-23 | Nasarawa United | Katsina United | NPFL | 1-0 |
| 2021-06-06 | Katsina United | Nasarawa United | NPFL | 2-1 |
| 2021-01-17 | Nasarawa United | Katsina United | NPFL | 1-0 |
| 2020-03-08 | Nasarawa United | Katsina United | NPFL | 3-0 |
| 2019-11-17 | Katsina United | Nasarawa United | NPFL | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.