Katsina United
vs
Sporting Lagos
Garuda Lions Prediction: Katsina United
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.09.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Katsina United vs Sporting Lagos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Katsina United vs Sporting Lagos
| Probability | Katsina United | Draw | Sporting Lagos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.0% | 23.6% | 19.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 57.0% | 23.6% | 19.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Katsina United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.09.
Katsina United vs Sporting Lagos match preview
Katsina United is favored to win against Sporting Lagos with a 57% probability, while a draw stands at 24% and Sporting Lagos at 19%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. Additionally, there is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams are expected to score with a 58% probability.
In terms of expected goals, Katsina United is projected to score 1.98, whereas Sporting Lagos is expected to net 1.08. Katsina United's recent form shows a mixed bag with two draws and a win in their last five matches, while Sporting Lagos has been performing better with three wins and two draws. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Katsina United and Sporting Lagos expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.06
Katsina United and Sporting Lagos attack and defence ratings
Katsina United
Sporting Lagos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Doma United v Ikorodu City — match page
- Enyimba vs Kun Khalifat FC — team news & stats
- Inter Lagos vs Ranchers Bees
- Kano Pillars v Nasarawa United — match page
- Kwara United vs Bendel Insurance
- Plateau United vs Warri Wolves — team news & stats
- Rivers United vs Enugu Rangers
- Shooting Stars v Abia Warriors — match page
Before and after this match
Katsina United vs Sporting Lagos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Katsina United | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.0% | 2.33 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Katsina United | 57.0% |
| Draw | 23.6% | |
| Sporting Lagos | 19.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.1% |
| No | 41.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Katsina United win | 34.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 43.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.1% |
Katsina United vs Sporting Lagos stats
Katsina United and Sporting Lagos recent form
| Katsina United |
DLWDDW |
| Sporting Lagos |
WWDDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Katsina United and Sporting Lagos season so far
Katsina United record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Sporting Lagos record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.